[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220613
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat May 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 mb gale-force non-tropical low is located near 34N61W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 360 nm NE semicircle
and 210 nm SW semicircle. The strongest winds of about 45 kt
are in the northern semicircle. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity has increased slightly over the past
several hours. If that trend continues, it would result in
advisories being initiated on the system later tonight or
Saturday morning while it moves slowly westward to west-sw
to the northeast of Bermuda. By Saturday night or Sunday,
the low is forecast to move NE into a more hostile environment.
The potential for subtropical cyclone formation during the next
two days is high. Please see High Seas forecasts issued by the
Ocean Prediction Center at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
for more details on this low pressure area.

A well-defined 1009 mb surface low pressure is centered in the
western Gulf of Mexico near 27N95W and is moving NNW at 15 kt.
A recent buoy observation indicates winds of 30kt near and in
the
eastern semicircle of the low. Scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized and on the eastern side of the low
pressure, from 23N-29N between 88W-93W. However, recent satellite
and radar imagery shows that shower and thunderstorm activity
remains limited. Although environmental conditions are not
particularly favorable for significant development, only a slight
increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of
a tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland
along the Texas coast overnight. Regardless of development, the
system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern
Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday. Given the
complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the
Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to
flash, urban, and additional river flooding across this region.
See the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more
information.

Gale Warning for the Canary Islands: According to the forecast
from Meteo France, localized winds to gale force will continue
near and in between the Canary Islands tonight. On Saturday,
gale force winds will continue near the Canary Islands, and gales
will expand toward the coast of Morocco, including the marine
zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Outside of the gales, strong to near
gale force winds will cover the area north of 26N and east of 24W
by Saturday. Expect seas to build to 12-14 ft offshore Morocco
this weekend, with 9-11 ft seas elsewhere north of 22N and east
of 32W. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products
from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W south of 12N, moving
W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
either side of the wave axis between 44W-52W. The wave could
enhance showers over the southern Windward Islands and SE
Caribbean on Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
10N14W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 02N39W to
03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N
between 29W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information on a
tropical disturbance with a medium chance of formation.

East of 90W, scattered tstorms are noted from the coast of
Louisiana to the Yucatan Peninsula between 87W-90W. High pressure
ridging stretching from the Carolinas to the NE Gulf of Mexico is
leading to mainly clear skies in the NE corner of the Gulf. Fresh
to strong winds prevail over the eastern and east-central Gulf of
Mexico, where seas are 8-11 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas
of 3-5 ft prevail over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

Low pressure in the NW Gulf will drift toward the Texas coast
through Sat. Fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the central
and eastern Gulf through Sat night. Seas will peak at around
10-11 ft in the north-central Gulf tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front enters the Caribbean through the Windward
Passage and extends westward south of Cuba, 20N80W. Scattered
moderate tstorms are along and south of the front, from the
western tip of Puerto Rico across Hispaniola to Jamaica to the
Yucatan Channel. Similar convection is seen over the Gulf of
Honduras. Most of the open waters of the eastern and central
Caribbean south of 17N are free of any significant precipitation.
Fresh to strong E winds prevail over the central Caribbean, as
well as in the lee of western Cuba and south of 14N to the coast
of Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas of
6-9 ft prevail over the central Caribbean, with 4-6 ft seas
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will
support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean, and
south of Cuba, through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on a low
pressure system NE of Bermuda that has a high chance of becoming
a subtropical cyclone.

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 24N62W. Isolated showers are
along the cold front. A stationary front ahead of the cold front
extends from 27N52W to 19N70W to the Windward passage and into
the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
within 120 nm of the stationary front. Fresh NE winds in the
western Atlantic, between Florida and 75W, with strong E winds in
the Florida Straits and south of the Bahamas. Winds are gentle to
moderate north of 20N between 30W-65W. Fresh to locally strong
winds prevail south of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are noted north
of 25N and east of 26W, with localized areas of near gale to gale
force in between the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front along 20N will
slowly dissipate through Sat. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off the eastern seaboard and the frontal boundary will
support fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W of
70W through early Sat. Large NE swell will enter the NE waters
tonight, and spread across the forecast area through Mon
building seas to 10-11 ft tonight and Sat.

$$

MMT
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