[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N40W
to 01N50W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from the
Equator to 08N between the coast of Liberia west to 29W and
Between 33W to 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front continues from the Atlantic Ocean through
the south-central Bahamas and across the Straits of Florida along
22N84W. High pressure centered just offshore of Cape Hatteras
extends a surface ridge S-SW across the Florida Big Bend toward
to the north central Gulf of Mexico. An outflow boundary extends
from the northern coast of Louisiana westward to South Texas
producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection across
Texas coastal waters. The associated pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressure across Mexico is producing fresh to
strong winds across much of the Gulf, with strongest winds across
the NE Gulf to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Seas are 8 to 9
ft and building across this area, as well as through the Straits
of Florida where strong early winds and blowing counter to the
Florida Current. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere except lower across
the Bay of Campeche. scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted across this area of strongest surface winds from the
Straits of Florida to southeast Louisiana.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger across the NW
Gulf of Mexico over the next day. A strong ridge from eastern
seaboard to the NE Gulf will continue to dominate the Gulf waters
the remainder of the week. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and a deepening low pressure across the Southern Plains and
northern Mexico will result in fresh to strong SE winds and high
seas across the Gulf region today through Sat. Except peak seas of
10-13 ft on Thu and Fri in the Straits of Florida with 12 ft seas
in the central Gulf on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak stationary front continues across the wester Atlantic and
through the south-central Bahamas and the Florida Straits along
about 22N. This is producing a modest pressure gradient across
the basin, with only moderate to fresh Trade winds presently. A
small area of fresh to strong SE winds are occurring across the
outer waters of the Gulf of Honduras. In the southwest Caribbean,
the monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure centered
over northern Colombia near 10N73W westward to Nicaragua and the
Costa Rica border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany
This boundary along the coastal areas of Panama. Most of the
low-level moisture is concentrated to the north near the
stationary front and in the western Caribbean with scattered
showers present. Stable atmospheric conditions persist across the
central and eastern portion of the basin.

High pressure across the NE Atlc extends weakly north of the
eastern Caribbean and will maintain moderate to fresh tradewinds
across the basin today. As high pressure continues to build across
the western Atlantic, trade winds will increase fresh to strong
basin wide this evening through Sun night. Expect fresh to strong
easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Thu
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A cold front bisects the Atlantic Ocean this morning, and enters
the discussion area through 31N37W to 25N46W. The front then
becomes stationary and continues along about 22N68W to 22N84W.
A 1027 mb surface high pressure center is located offshore of
Cape Hatteras this morning. The pressure gradient between this
high and the front is producing an area of fresh NE to E winds
across the waters east of Florida to 67-70W, where seas are 7
to 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150
nm south of the frontal boundary across the Atlantic, the Bahamas
and through the Straits of Florida.

East of the frontal boundary, a ridge prevails, extending from
1078 mb high pressure near 36N20W through 31N28W to the Turks
and Caicos Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of this
ridge is producing moderate to locally fresh tradewinds across the
Tropical Atlantic south of 17N, where seas are 5 to 8 ft.

N-to-NE winds have diminished below gale-force in the METEO-
FRANCE forecast area offshore of Morrocco, that is called AGADIR.
Winds to 30 kt and seas to 12 ft continue across this area.

In the forecast, the stationary front will linger across this
area through Thu morning. The front will weaken on Thu as it
sinks southward and approaches the Windward Passage and
Hispaniola. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between high pressure
off of Cape Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support an
area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W of 65W
Wed through Fri. Seas will peak around 10 ft E of the Bahamas
late Wed through early Thu.

$$
MTorres
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