[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N20W to 03N33W. The ITCZ continues from 03N33W
to 01N43W to 04N53W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 01N to 08N between 05W and 30W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is elsewhere within 120 nm N of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front continues from the Atlantic Ocean through
the south central Bahamas near 23N75W and across the Straits of
Florida along 23N and along the NW coast of Cuba. High pressure
centered just offshore of Cape Hatteras extends a surface ridge
S-SW across the Florida Big Bend toward to the north central Gulf
of Mexico. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure across Mexico is producing fresh to strong winds
across much of the Gulf early this morning, with strongest winds
across the NE Gulf to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Seas are
8 to 9 ft and building across this area, as well as through the
Straits of Florida where strong early winds and blowing counter to
the Florida Current. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere except lower
across the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted across this area of strongest surface winds
from the Straits of Florida to southeast Louisiana.

This strong surface ridge from eastern seaboard to the NE Gulf
will continue to dominate the Gulf waters the remainder of the
week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a deepening low
pressure across the Southern Plains and northern Mexico will
maintain fresh to strong mainly SE winds, and high seas across
the Gulf region today through Fri. Expect peak seas of 10 or 11
ft Thu and Fri and to 12 ft in the Straits of Florida.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak stationary front continues across the wester Atlantic and
through the south central Bahamas along about 23N. This is
producing a modest pressure gradient across the basin, with only
moderate to fresh tradewinds presently. A small area of fresh to
strong SE winds are occurring across the outer waters of the Gulf
of Honduras. Stable atmospheric conditions persist across most of
the basin. A few clusters of moderate convection are seen across
the SW Caribbean south of 12.5N, while scattered showers are seen
across the Yucatan Channel.

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through
Panama and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Trade winds will increase basin wide tonight through Sun night as
high pressure builds across the western Atlantic north of the
stationary front. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds in the
Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A cold front bisects the Atlantic Ocean this morning, and enters
the discussion area through 31N39W to 25N47W to 24N50W. The front
then becomes stationary, and continues along about 23N to the NW
coast of Cuba. A 1027 mb surface high pressure center is located
offshore of Cape Hatteras this morning. The pressure gradient
between this high and the front is producing an area of fresh NE
to E winds across the waters east of Florida to 67-68W, where seas
are 7 to 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150
nm south of the frontal boundary across the Atlantic, the Bahamas
and through the Straits of Florida.

East of the frontal boundary, a ridge prevails, extending from
1028 mb high pressure near 42N14W through 31N28W to 25N41W to the
Turks and Caicos Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of
this ridge is producing moderate to locally fresh tradewinds
across the Tropical Atlantic south of 17N, where seas are 5 to 8
ft.

N-to-NE winds have diminished below gale-force in the METEO-
FRANCE forecast area offshore of Morrocco, that is called AGADIR.
Winds to 30 kt and seas to 12 ft continue across this area.

A frontal boundary extending through the SE Bahamas will
gradually become aligned E to W along 22N/23N through Thu then
sink southward and weaken, approaching the Windward Passage and
Hispaniola by Fri night. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Cape Hatteras and the frontal boundary will
support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front
and W of 68W Wed through Fri with seas peaking around 10 to 11 ft
E of the Bahamas late Wed through early Thu. The northern portion
of the cold front will drift northward Thu and Fri as low pressure
across the NW Atlantic sinks southward towards Bermuda. This low
center is expected to produce gale-force winds as it approaches
Bermuda Fri, and will generate N swell to move into the waters
west of 60W this coming weekend.

$$
Stripling
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