[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180622
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...METEO-FRANCE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING OFF THE COAST OF
MOROCCO...

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the 1026 mb
Azores high pressure center that is near 34N25W, and the
comparatively lower surface pressures in West Africa, is
supporting gale-force winds in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area,
that is called AGADIR. The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet
to 11 feet. The wind speeds are forecast to be less than gale-
force at 19/0000 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High
Seas Forecast, that is on the website: www.meteofrance.com/
previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2, or the
website:
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1814.17

18141321098.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from
05N25W, to 03N35W, to 05N50W, to 07N58W at the coast of Guyana.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 08N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through Georgia and Florida, into the
north central Gulf of Mexico, toward the NE corner of Mexico.

An inland surface trough passes through the northern parts of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, curving toward
the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate cover the
Gulf of Mexico from 27N southward from 93W eastward. The clouds
and precipitation are in the area of the frontal boundary that
was in the Gulf of Mexico during the last few day

An upper level trough passes through West Texas and the Texas
Big Bend, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 120 nm to
the south of the coast of Louisiana between 90W and 94W, and in
Texas and Mexico from 26N to 30N between 97W and 101W.

Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate cover the Gulf of Mexico from 27N southward
from 93W eastward. The clouds and precipitation are in the area
of the frontal boundary that was in the Gulf of Mexico during
the last few days.

The scatterometer winds show that fresh-to-strong winds are
within 180 nm on either side of the line that runs from the
Yucatan Channel to the coast of Mississippi. The sea heights are
ranging from 5 feet to 6 feet.

High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts, extending SW to
the NE Gulf, will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains and northern Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line continues from the Atlantic Ocean near 23N70W, to
the Bahamas near 23N74W, to Cuba near 21N78W, and into the
Caribbean Sea near 20N82W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong in the waters and in Cuba, from 20N
northward, between SE Cuba and the Yucatan Channel.

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N73W, through
the border of Panama and Colombia, through the western half of
Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. An upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to
Nicaragua and Honduras. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is in Colombia and its coastal waters,
and to the south of Panama, within 120 nm to 180 nm to the south
of the monsoon trough.

An upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to Nicaragua
and Honduras. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Caribbean Sea.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

The scatterometer winds show that strong NE-to-E winds are
within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia
and Venezuela, and in the Gulf of Venezuela between 68W and 73W.
Fresh winds are elsewhere within 300 nm to the north of
Venezuela and Colombia between 67W and 77W. The sea heights in
that same area are ranging from 5 feet to 6 feet.

A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night
as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. Expect
fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at
night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

The scatterometer winds show that fresh to strong winds cover
the waters that are from 25N northward between 46W and 55W. The
winds are to the south of the cold front, and the 1006 mb low
pressure center that is near 35N49W. The sea heights are ranging
from 8 feet to 12 feet.

A cold front passes through 31N48W to 29N50W to 24N60W. The
front becomes stationary, and it continues to 23N70W. A shear
line continues from 23N70W, to the Bahamas near 23N74W, to Cuba
near 21N78W, and into the Caribbean Sea near 20N82W. The
scatterometer winds show that fresh-to-strong winds are within
480 nm to the north of the stationary front and the shear line.
The sea heights are ranging from 5 feet to 6 feet.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 200 nm to the south of the cold front and the stationary
front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers, are elsewhere from 20N northward from 40W
westward.

An upper level trough extends from 20N42W to 06N46W. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in
satellite imagery. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery within 360 nm to 720 nm to the
northwest of the upper level trough.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N25W, to 31N32W, to 23N42W, and to 18N64W near the NE
corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
19N northward from 24W eastward, associated with a 26N17W upper
level cyclonic circulation center.

The current stationary front, extending from 24N65W through the
SE Bahamas to central Cuba near 23N80W, will drift SE through
late Tue, and become aligned E to W along 23N and remain through
Fri. The pressure gradient, between high pressure off of Cape
Hatteras and the frontal boundary, will support an area of fresh
to strong easterly winds roughly N of 22N-23N and W of 68W, with
seas building to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

$$
mt/SS
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