[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO...

A strong pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Azores High near
34N24W and lower pressures over NW Africa will support developing
gale-force winds in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area, that is
called AGADIR. The gale-force winds are forecast to end possibly
at 18/0600 UTC. Seas are forecast to range from 9 to 12 feet.
Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 12N15W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to
02N51W along the coast of NE Brazil. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted south of 07N and east of 29W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 06N and west of
29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge over the SE United States along with a trough over
N central Mexico is producing SE moderate to fresh winds across
the Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted within 60 NM of the Louisiana coast.

High pressure along the middle Atlantic coast extending SW to the
NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the week.
This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the basin
through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late Tue
through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains and
northern Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1027 mb Bermuda High centered near 36N74W along with a 1010 mb
Colombian Low near 10N75W are contributing to fresh to strong NE
to E trades in the S central Caribbean and gentle to moderate E
trades elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the S central Caribbean
and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. The tail end of a shear line extends
across central Cuba to 21N83W and is causing scattered moderate
convection from 20N to 22N between 78W and 83W. Convection that
was located previously in the far SW Caribbean earlier today has
now dissipated.

The Bermuda High NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and
weaken, diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade
winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic. Expect fresh to
strong easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night
through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See Special Features Section above for a Gale Warning in the far
E Atlantic.

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1006 mb low at 32N51W
to 24N60W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 24N67W,
where it transitions to a shear line to central Cuba. Winds north
of 28N behind the front are NW fresh, while ahead of the front
are strong SW. Seas in these winds are 8 to 12 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 60 NM of the front. A ridge
extends southwestward from a 1026 mb Azores High at 34N24W to
22N65W. NE to E trades south of the ridge are moderate to fresh.
Elsewhere winds across the tropical N Atlantic are gentle to
moderate with seas of 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, the weakening frontal boundary will
drift SE through late Tue while gradually dissipating. Its
remnants will remain along 22N- 23N through Fri. The pressure
gradient between high pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal
boundary will support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds
roughly N of 22N-23N and W of 68W- 70W, with seas to 11 ft E of
the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

For the forecast east of 65W, the strong winds associated with
the cold front will lift north of the area by late Tue. Swells of
8 to 10 ft will continue north of 27N east of 65W through Wed
night. NE to E trades south of 20N will continue as moderate to
fresh for the next several days.

$$
KONARIK
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