[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151642
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat May 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A recent ASCAT pass from Saturday
morning shows gale force N to NE winds off the coast of Morocco,
north of 30.5N and east of 12W, in the Agadir marine area. The
forecast from Meteo-France calls for a continuation of gale force
winds in this area through 16/0000 this evening. After that time,
winds will subside to about 25 kt. Please refer to the Meteo
France High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products, which
can be accessed at the website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 04N27W to 05N35W to
07N43W. A westward moving surface trough extends from 07N44W to
01N46W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N-08N between 07W-19W, and from 02S-06N between
38W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf of Mexico from
17N93W to 23N98W. CIRA layered precipitable water imagery and
GOES-16 low and mid level water vapor channels indicate abundant
moisture over the SW Gulf. As a result, scattered showers are
occurring, mainly south of 25.5N and west of 92W. A 1026 mb high
pressure centered over western North Carolina is spreading ridging
over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh E winds
prevail over the basin, with seas of 4-6 ft. High pressure over
the Gulf waters will support a continuation of moderate to fresh E
to SE winds over most areas through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak mid to upper level ridging prevails across the Caribbean,
which is keeping subsidence and relatively dry air across the
basin, with little to no significant precipitation. A recent ASCAT
pass shows fresh to strong trades across the south-central
Caribbean. Moderate trades cover the eastern Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate NE to E winds over the NW portion of the basin.
Seas are 7-9 ft over the south-central and SW Caribbean, 4-6 ft
over the eastern and north-central Caribbean, and 3-4 ft in the NW
portion of the basin.

An Atlantic high pressure ridge N of the area will shift eastward
and weaken, diminishing winds and seas tonight through Mon. Trade
winds will increase across the south-central Caribbean late Mon
through Wed as high pressure builds across the W Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the far eastern Atlantic near the
coast of Morocco. See the Special Features section above for
details.

West of 60W: A cold front extends from 31N60W to 26N71W. The
front is dissipating from 26N71W to Cat Island, Bahamas. At 1500
UTC, a 1016 mb low pressure is analyzed along the front near
30N61W. Scattered showers are near and within 90 nm SE of the
front, mainly north of 25.5N and east of 71W. The latest ASCAT
pass shows mainly gentle to moderate winds on both sides of the
front. However, fresh NE winds prevail east of northern Florida,
mainly north of 28N and west of 77W. Fresh to strong NE winds are
occurring to the NW of the low pressure, but these winds are
mostly north of 31N. Seas are 6-8 ft east of Florida and 5-7 ft
across the remainder of the western Atlantic, to the E and NE of
the Bahamas. The front will dissipate west of 65W by Sunday. Winds
will increase north of 25N and west of 70W late Tue through Wed
as high pressure builds across the W Atlantic.

East of 60W: Surface ridging prevails over the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure near 33N29W. An upper-
level low spinning near 26N29W is inducing scattered showers from
17N-23N between 24W-33W. Strong to near gale force N to NE winds
prevail from the Canary Islands to Morocco, with seas of 9-12 ft.
Seas are 4-6 ft over the central subtropical Atlantic north of
20N, with gentle winds. Seas are 6-8 ft over the tropical Atlantic
south of 20N, with moderate to fresh trades. For the forecast,
low pressure will strengthen along the cold front mentioned in the
paragraph above Sunday evening near 32N55W, with the cold front
extending from the low to 28N64W. The strengthening low north of
the area will produce seas of 8-9 ft, mainly north of 30N between
50W-65W, Sunday night into Monday.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net