[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150952
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING: A warning for gale-force winds, in the AGADIR
area, has been issued by METEO-FRANCE. The gale-force winds are
forecast to be present off the coast of Morocco, until 16/0000
UTC. Please, refer to the High Seas Forecast at the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2,
or the website:
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1911.14
19120119262.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 09N13W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 07N40W,
then continues along the Equator/01S, from 40W to 47W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 06.5N
between 07W and 24W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 00N to 06.5N between 30W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front passes through the western Straits of
Florida, to 24N95W. A surface trough continues from 24N95W and
curves to the northern coastal areas of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico. A surface trough is in the coastal plains and
the coastal waters of the western sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds prevail within
150 nm N of the front across the Gulf, and across the waters
within 180 nm of the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is seen across
the Bay of Campeche south of 20N, and across western portions from
21.5N to 24.5N west of 94.5W to the Mexican coast.

The current dissipating stationary front from the Straits of
Florida to 24N95W will lift slowly northward and dissipate through
Sun. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will persist over most areas
through Tue as high pressure builds north of the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through
Panama about 80 nm to the north of its border with Colombia,
beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. An
upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to central
Nicaragua. An upper level trough passes through 17N60W in the
Atlantic Ocean, toward the ABC Islands. Drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 12N northward from 75W
eastward and is producing stable weather conditions generally east
of 80W. Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail across south central
portions of the basin south of 14.5N. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across the Gulf of Honduras south of 16.5N.

The current Atlantic Ocean high pressure ridge, that is extending
W-SW to the central Bahamas, will support fresh to strong trade winds
in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish late Sat through Mon as the high pressure
shifts eastward and weakens. Tradewinds will increase across the
south-central Caribbean late Mon through Wed as high pressure
builds across the W Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A warning for gale-force winds, in the AGADIR area, has been
issued by METEO-FRANCE. The gale-force winds are forecast to be
present off the coast of Morocco, until 16/0000 UTC.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N62W to 28.5N74W ,
through the far northern Bahamas and extreme SE Florida and
through the Straits of Florida. Winds are generally E around 15 kt
north of the front and east of 75W, while a surge of NNE winds
around 20 kt was captured by overnight scatterometer data offshore
of NE Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina to the west of 77W.
Seas there are 8-9 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are seen
elsewhere W of 65W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
north of 27N between 56W and 66W, on either side of the front.

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center near
32N32W to the central Bahamas. This broad ridge is supporting
moderate to fresh tradewinds across the Tropical Atlantic south of
21N, where seas are 6-8 ft.

The current cold front will sink slowly southeastward and weaken
through Mon, and dissipate late Mon as it becomes E to W aligned
along 25N. Winds will increase north of 25N and west of 70W late
Tue through Wed as high pressure builds across the W Atlc.

$$
Stripling
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