[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING: The surface pressure gradient, that is between the
Atlantic Ocean ridge and comparatively lower pressures in the
western sections of Africa, will be supporting gale-force winds
off the coast of Morocco, in the area that is called AGADIR,
according to the METEO-FRANCE marine forecasts. Expect the
gale-force winds until at least 14/0000 UTC. Please, refer to
the High Seas Forecast at the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along
01N between 40W and 50W. One surface trough is along 10N17W
05N21W, toward the Equator along 23W. A second surface trough is
along 05N28W 02N29W, toward the Equator along 30W. A third
surface trough is along 34W/35W from 04S to the Equator.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, in
individual disorganized clusters, is from 07N southward between
18W and South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through southern Georgia, to southern
Mississippi, to SE Louisiana. The front becomes stationary, from
SE Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. The stationary
front continues inland in Mexico, northwestward, to just to the
south of the Texas Big Bend. Precipitation: scattered strong is
within 75 nm to 150 nm to the southeast of the cold front
between 94W and 96W, and from 80 nm to 220 nm to the south of
the stationary front in Mexico between 97W and 100W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 240 nm
to 360 nm to the south of the frontal boundary.

Smoke and haze from agricultural and wild fires in Mexico and
Central America have been reducing the visibilities slightly in
the SW Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that the smoke and haze
may be disappearing with the precipitation.

The current cold front, that extends from southern Mississippi
to Tampico in Mexico, will reach from Fort Myers in Florida to
25N94W to Veracruz in Mexico on Friday. The front will stall
from the Straits of Florida to the west central Gulf of Mexico
late on Friday night, then move northward and dissipate through
Sunday. Moderate to fresh easterly wind flow will persist into
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through
Panama about 60 nm to the north of its border with Colombia, and
beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 189 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough, in Colombia, between 74W and 77W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere, within 120
nm to the south of the monsoon trough, in Colombia near 73W, and
in Panama between 78W and 79W.

An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola to 15N80W to
southern Nicaragua. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, within 200 nm to 300 nm to the
north of the trough.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

The surface pressure gradient, between an Atlantic Ocean surface
ridge that is along 28N, and comparatively lower surface
pressures in Colombia, is contributing to strong NE to E trade
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights are
ranging from 6 feet to 10 feet from 18N southward between 65W
and 82W. Fresh easterly winds, and sea heights of 6 feet are
within 100 nm to the north of Honduras between 86W and 88W.

High pressure to the north of the region will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through
Saturday. The winds and the seas will diminish gradually, on
Sunday and Monday, as the high pressure shifts eastward and
weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Gale-force winds are being forecast by the METEO-FRANCE agency,
off the coast of AGADIR, in Morocco.

A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 33N74W. A cold front
extends westward from the 1015 mb low pressure center, through
southern Georgia, to southern Mississippi. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the
south of the cold front, from 70W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N28W, to 30N57W, to 26N69W, to Lake Okeechobee in
south Florida. Light to gentle winds were being observed. The
sea heights were ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward
between 28W and 50W, associated with a nearby upper level trough.

A cold front will move to the east of northern Florida late
tonight. The cold front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida
on Friday, and from 31N65W to the Straits of Florida on
Saturday. The front will stall to the north of Hispaniola on
Sunday, and then dissipate as it moves northward early next
week.

$$
mt/dm
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