[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support fresh to
strong N to NE winds north of 20N and within about 150 nm of the
coast of W Africa off Agadir, Morocco. Meteo-France has continued
a Gale Warning for Agadir through 14/00Z at least. The forecast
calls for N winds of strong to near gale, locally gale close to
the coast with rough to very rough seas. Refer to the High Seas
Forecast at their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off of the coast of Senegal near
16N17W to 14N19W. The ITCZ extends from 00N36W to the coast of
Brazil near 03N51W. A surface trough extends from 08N21W to
01S30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07S to 07N
between 22W to 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 2100 UTC, a cold front extended from the SE Louisiana coast
near 29N90W to 26N94W to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. A pre-
frontal trough is present from 30N86W to 29N88W. Numerous strong
convection is occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico S of 25N between
95W to 98W. Frequent lightning and gusty winds can be expected
with these storms. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
north-central Gulf, N of 25N between 85W to 94W. Winds across
most of the Gulf ahead of the front are SE light to moderate,
except for fresh SE winds in the SW Gulf. Winds north of the cold
front are NE gentle to moderate. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the central
and W Gulf, and only 2 to 3 ft in the E Gulf. Smoke and haze from
agricultural and wild fires in Mexico and Central America are
reducing visibilities slightly over the SW Gulf of Mexico, though
this may mix out with the shower and thunderstorm activity in the
area.

The cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay to south of
Tampico, Mexico by early Thu, and from near Fort Myers, Florida to
25N94W to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. The front will stall
from the Straits of Florida to the west-central Gulf by early Sat
before lifting north while dissipating into Sun. Moderate to fresh
easterly flow will persist into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Panama near 09N82W to
the coast of Colombia near 09N76W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 11N between 80W to 84W. Meanwhile,
diurnally driven convection over Cuba is pushing southward toward
adjacent waters. The pressure gradient from a high pressure ridge
along 28N to a low over Colombia is contributing to strong NE to E
trades over the S central Caribbean and fresh to moderate to
fresh E trades elsewhere. There is also moderate to fresh winds in
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over S central
Caribbean and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere.

High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into Sat. Winds and
seas will diminish slightly thereafter into early next week as the
high pressure shifts eastward and weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale
Warning near Agadir.

Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the Florida coast, N of 26N
and W of 78W. High pressure extends across the rest of the area of
the Atlantic with quiescent conditions. Light to gentle winds are
noted with seas 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast tonight, reach from near Bermuda to South
Florida by early Fri, and from 31N65W to the Straits of Florida by
early Sat. The front will stall north of Hispaniola into Sun then
dissipate as it lifts northward early next week.

For the forecast east of 55W, little change to winds or seas are
expected through Fri night.  Beginning Sat morning, a cold front
will move across the waters north of 27N and reach 52W by Sun
night. Winds on both sides of the front will be fresh to strong
and seas reaching 8 ft. Elsewhere a reduced pressure gradient
will weaken the trades across the Atlantic on Sat and Sun.


$$
AReinhart/Landsea
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