[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support fresh to
strong N to NE winds north of 20N and within about 150 NM of the
coast of W Africa off Agadir, Morocco. Meteo-France has
continued a Gale Warning for Agadir through 13/12Z. The forecast
calls for N winds of strong to near gale, locally gale close to
the coast with rough to very rough seas. Refer to the High Seas
Forecast at their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 02N41W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W.
There is not oceanic monsoon trough today.  A surface trough
extends from 03N24W to 06N20W. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 03N to 06N between 20W and 30W as well as from 00N
to 03N west of 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the coast of Louisiana
near 29N91W to the coast of NE Mexico near 24N98W. Pre-frontal
troughs are present from the Florida panhandle near 30N86W to
29N88W as well as 25N94W to 21N97W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring from 23N to 25N west of
94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N to 28N
between 88W and 92W. Winds across most of the Gulf ahead of the
front are SE light to moderate, except for fresh SE winds in the
SW Gulf. Winds north of the cold front are NE gentle to
moderate. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the central and W Gulf, and only
2 to 3 ft in the E Gulf. Smoke and haze from agricultural and
wild fires in Mexico and Central America are reducing
visibilities slightly over the SW Gulf of Mexico, though this
may mix out with the shower and thunderstorm activity in the
area.

The cold front will push southward in the western Gulf later
today, then gradually stall and weaken across the southern Gulf
through Fri. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected
across the basin Fri through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient from a high pressure ridge along 28N to a
1009 mb low over Colombia is contributing to strong NE to E
trades over the S central Caribbean and fresh to moderate to
fresh E trades elsewhere. Scattered showers are present in the
SW Caribbean south of 12N in association with the NE Pacific
monsoon trough that extends across Costa Rica and Panama to
coastal Colombia near 10N76W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over S central
Caribbean and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere.

High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into Sat. Fresh to
strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale
Warning near Agadir.

Surface ridging extends from a 1028 mb Bermuda/Azores High at
35N28W west-southwestward to 28N80W. E to NE trades south of the
ridge are only light to moderate. No significant deep convection
is noted away from the ITCZ, though scattered showers are
present from 20N to 27N between 32W to 42W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft
across the tropical N Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast tonight, reach from near Bermuda to
South Florida by early Fri, from 31N65W to the Straits of
Florida by early Sat, before stalling north of Hispaniola
through Sun.

For the forecast east of 55W, little change to winds or seas are
expected through Fri night.  Beginning Sat morning, a cold front
will move across the waters north of 27N and reach 52W by Sun
night. Winds on both sides of the front will be fresh to strong
and seas reaching 8 ft. Elsewhere a reduced pressure gradient
will weaken the trades across the Atlantic on Sat and Sun.


$$
Landsea
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net