[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support fresh to
strong winds N of 20N and within about 150 nm of the coast of W
Africa off Agadir, Morocco. Meteo-France has continued a Gale
Warning for Agadir from 11/18Z through 13/00Z. The forecast calls
for northerly winds Force 8 in the Beaufort Wind Scale with
gusts to gale force at times and rough seas. Refer to the High
Seas Forecast at their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-
meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 03N17W. No ITCZ was discernible
from scatterometer data. A surface trough is along 24W/25W from
the Equator to 03N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 06N between 18W and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary is along the northern Gulf coast of the U.S.,
stretching from central Georgia across Alabama and Mississippi
to coastal sections of Louisiana and Texas. An area of scattered
moderate to strong convection associated with the front is near
the southern coast of Texas from 25N to 28N between 95W and 98W.
Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are elsewhere
in the NW Gulf. Scatterometer and buoy data show fresh E to SE
winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula,
associated with a surface trough analyzed from 21N90W to 19N92W.

For the forecast, a cold front will push southward in the
western Gulf later today, then gradually stall and weaken across
the southern Gulf through Fri. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
are expected across the basin Fri through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered northeast of the region is supporting
fresh to strong trades in the central and eastern Caribbean,
with the highest winds near Colombia. Recent scatterometer data
showed 25-30 kt NE to E winds north of Colombia from 11N to 14N
between 73W and 77W. Seas generated by these winds are generally
7 to 9 ft, except 8-11 ft north of Colombia. A few showers are
noted in the SW Caribbean, south of 10N. Isolated trade wind
showers prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the region will
support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are also expected
in the Gulf of Honduras tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale
Warning near Agadir.

A ridge extends from high pressure centered near 31N39W to the
Bahamas. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer data shows
moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds south of a line from
28N38W to 23N55W to 23N70W, and gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds north of the aforementioned line. Seas are generally 6 to
7 ft in the area of moderate to fresh trades noted above, and 3
to 6 ft elsewhere across the waters north of 20N. No areas of
organized convection are evident from satellite imagery, only
isolated trade wind showers are noted.

For the marine forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move
southward across the western Atlantic Thu and Fri, reaching the
waters south of 27N on Sat. High pressure will follow the front
this weekend.

$$
Mundell
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net