[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112225
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2220 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support fresh to
strong winds N of 20N and within about 150 nm of the coast of W
Africa off Agadir, Morocco. Meteo-France has continued a Gale
Warning for Agadir from 11/18Z through 13/00Z. The forecast calls
for northerly winds Force 8 in the Beaufort Wind Scale with
gusts and at times very rough seas. For more details, refer to
the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from
07N17W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is along and south of the monsoon
trough from 03N to 07N between 16W to 21W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 00N to 09N
between 20W to 30W and from 02S to 03N between 35W to the coast
of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure is centered over the eastern Gulf, south of a
stalled front reaching from the Sabine River to Mobile Bay. A few
thunderstorms are evident south of the front off the western
Florida Panhandle. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
are noted over the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes with
2 to 4 ft are noted over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
tonight producing moderate to locally fresh southerly winds
across the western half of the Gulf and gentle to moderate E to SE
winds over the eastern half. A surface trough will develop over
the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf
by morning. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated
with this trough. A frontal boundary will linger across the
northern Gulf coast tonight. Building high pressure across the SE
CONUS will push a late-season cold front across the Gulf on Wed,
and it is expected to extend across the Straits of Florida and the
southern Gulf by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong trade winds
across most of the Caribbean south of 18N, between a relatively
strong subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic, and
lower pressure farther south in the tropics. The high winds are
over the south-central Caribbean, with 7 to 10 ft seas. Seas are 5
to 7 ft over the eastern Caribbean. Surface observations also
confirm fresh to strong E winds over the Bay Islands of Honduras
as well. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted elsewhere over the
northwest Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft seas. A sharp upper trough
reaches from above the Windward Passage to the far southwest
Caribbean. Ample moisture along with trade wind convergence and
divergence aloft east of the upper trough are together supporting
a few thunderstorms from off western Panama to southeast Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the high pressure located north of the Caribbean
Sea combined with the Colombian low will continue to support
fresh to strong winds over the south- central Caribbean through
Fri. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight and again Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for more information on the
Gale Warning near Agadir.

A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N57W to
east-central Florida. Recent buoy observations and an earlier
scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh trade
winds south of 22N west of 65W, with locally strong E winds off
the mountainous terrain of the central coast of Hispaniola. Seas
are estimated to be 4 to 6 ft in this area. Light to gentle
breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere west of 65W. No
significant convection is noted west of 65W.

Farther east, the ridge extends across the Atlantic north of 20N.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted south of 20N, with gentle
to moderate E winds north of 20N, except for fresh to strong NE
winds off northwest Africa. Seas are 5 to 7 ft overall.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, a cold front will
move southward across the western Atlantic on Wed. Weak low
pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary
allowing the front to move across the northern forecast waters Thu
and Fri, reaching the waters S of 27N on Sat. High pressure will
follow the front.

$$
Christensen
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