[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112139
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support fresh to
strong winds N of 20N and within about 150 nm of the coast of W
Africa off Agadir, Morocco. Meteo-France has continued a Gale
Warning for Agadir from 11/18Z through 13/00Z. The forecast calls
for northerly winds Force 8 in the Beaufort Wind Scale with
gusts and at times very rough seas. For more details, refer to
the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from
07N17W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is along and south of the monsoon
trough from 03N to 07N between 16W to 21W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 00N to 09N
between 20W to 30W and from 02S to 03N between 35W to the coast
of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends across most of the Gulf of Mexico. A
quasi-stationary front extends along the north-central and
northwest Gulf coast. This is a focal point for convection
particularly along the north-central Gulf Coast. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted N of 29N between 86W to
91W. There is another area of scattered moderate convection in
the SW Gulf, S of 22N between 95W to 97W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds in
the western Gulf with light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf.
Seas range 3-6 ft.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters today producing moderate
to locally fresh southerly winds across the western half of the
Gulf and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern half.
A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds will be associated with this trough. A
frontal boundary will linger across the northern Gulf coast
through tonight. Building high pressure across the SE CONUS will
push a late-season cold front across the Gulf on Wed, and it is
expected to extend across the Straits of Florida and the
southern Gulf by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A diffluent pattern aloft east of an upper-level trough axis
continues to support showers across the eastern Caribbean,
especially portions of the Lesser Antilles into Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. Farther south, scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean off the coasts of
Nicaragua southward into Panama. This convection is noted S of
12N between 80W to 84W. The latest scatterometer data depicts
strong winds north of Colombia with fresh winds across the south
central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in
the eastern Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades are in the NW
basin with the stronger winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
range 3-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean and NW Caribbean. In the
south-central region, seas range 6-11 ft and upwards of 7 ft in
the Gulf of Honduras.

High pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the
south-central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are
also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again Wed
night. A moisture surge will continue to affect parts of the
east and central Caribbean today while gradually diminishing.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for more information on the
Gale Warning near Agadir.

W of 65W: High pressure extends across most of the western
Atlantic. A surface trough extends southward to the central
Florida coast from 31N79W to 28N80W. Showers are noted near the
NE Florida coast. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted
across the region with seas 3-5 ft.

A cold front will move southward across the western Atlantic on
Wed. Weak low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal
boundary allowing the front to move across the northern forecast
waters Thu and Fri, reaching the waters S of 27N on Sat. High
pressure will follow the front.

E of 65W: A ridge will continue to dominate this area today. Two
troughs are located in the central and eastern Atlantic. The
first one extends from 29N50W to 26N53W. The other extends from
31N32W to 25N35W. No significant convection is associated with
these features. Light to gentle winds are noted across the area
with seas 5-7 ft.

$$
Christensen
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