[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092240
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through central Guinea
near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 01N25W. The ITCZ extends
from 01N25W to 02N40W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 04W and 08W, within
150 n mi N of the ITCZ, and within 120 n mi of either side of the
monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates most of Gulf waters anchored by 1025 mb high
pressure located between NE Florida and Bermuda. Generally
moderate S to SE winds prevail over the eastern half of the Gulf
basin while moderate to fresh S to SE winds are noted over the
western half, increasing over the NW portion. Seas are generally 4
to 6 ft W of 90W, except locally 7 feet over the NW Gulf. East of
90W, seas are 3 to 4 ft. Other than some showers and thunderstorms
across the Florida Everglades, fair weather continues over the
entire Gulf today.

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf region and
lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will support moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds across the W Gulf through Tue. A
surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds will be associated with this trough. A
stationary front will linger across the northern Gulf coast Tue
and Wed with showers occurring along the boundary. Building high
pressure across the SE CONUS will push the front across the Gulf
on Thu and is expected to exit the basin by Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data from late this morning indicated fresh to
locally strong E to NE trades occurring over the south-central
Caribbean Sea, particularly S of 15N between 67W and 77W.
Generally moderate trades currently prevail elsewhere across the
basin. A low level trough across the southern Caribbean along 69W
continues to interact with a diffluent pattern aloft to support
scattered moderate convection S of 15N between 65W and 71W. Seas
are 6 to 8 ft over the south-central Caribbean Sea, and mainly 3
to 5 ft elsewhere.

A ridge north of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Thu
night. Winds will also pulse fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf
of Honduras through Thu night. A surge in moisture associated with
the low level trough will increase the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms across the south central Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dying frontal boundary extends into the area of discussion near
31N59W and continues to the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and a
few isolated thunderstorms are noted within 180 n mi of the
front to the E of 70W. 1025 mb high pressure is centered near
30N67W producing light to gentle winds N of 29N W of 70W. Mainly
moderate winds are noted elsewhere W of 70W. A broad ridge of high
pressure anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 33N43W
dominates much of the remainder of the tropical and subtropical
Atlantic basin, producing moderate to fresh trades S of 24N, and
mostly gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. The only other notable
features in the area are a surface trough extending from 25N30W to
27N42W producing isolated moderate convection, and a dissipating
stationary front along 31N between 15W and 25W. Seas are generally
3 to 5 ft N of 24N, and 5 to 7 ft S of 24N.

The front is extending into the NW Bahamas is expected to
completely dissipate by tonight. Another cold front will move
southward across the western Atlantic on Wed and stall on Thu. A
low will develop along the front on Fri and continue pushing south
and east through Fri night.

$$
Stripling
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