[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through central Guinea
near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 01N25W. The ITCZ extends
from 01N25W to 01N35W to 01N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 180 n mi N of the ITCZ
and within 150 n mi of either side of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates most of Gulf waters anchored by 1025 mb high
pressure located east of NE Florida. A weakening surface trough
is propagating NW over the Bay of Campeche producing locally fresh
winds. Generally moderate S to SE winds prevail over the eastern
half of the Gulf basin while moderate to fresh S to SE winds are
noted over the western half, increasing over the NW portion. Seas
are generally 4 to 6 ft W of 90W, except locally 7 feet over the
NW Gulf. East of 90W, seas are 3 to 4 ft. Other than some showers
near the Florida Keys, fair weather continues over the entire
Gulf today.

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the
Gulf region and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will
support fresh to locally strong SE return flow across the NW
Gulf today. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated with this
trough. A stationary front will linger across the northern Gulf
coast Tue and Wed with showers occurring along the boundary.
Building high pressure across the SE CONUS will push the front
across the Gulf on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data from late this morning indicates fresh to
locally strong E to NE trades are occurring over the south-
central Caribbean Sea, particularly S of 15N between 67W and 77W.
Generally moderate trades prevail elsewhere across the basin. A
surface trough extends from 17N64W to 10N65W and is interacting
with a diffluent pattern aloft to support scattered moderate
convection S of 14N between 62W and 70W, and scattered showers
within 150 n mi of the trough axis N of 14N. Seas are 6 to 9 ft
over the south- central Caribbean Sea, and mainly 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere.

A ridge north of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Thu
night. Winds will also pulse fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf
of Honduras through Thu night. A surge in moisture will increase
the likelihood of showers across the eastern Caribbean through
Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dying frontal boundary extends into the area of discussion near
31N61W and continues to near the Florida Keys. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 60 n mi of the front.
1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N69W producing light to gentle
winds N of 29N W of 70W. Mainly moderate winds are noted elsewhere
W of 70W. A broad ridge of high pressure anchored by a 1028 mb
high centered near 33N44W dominates much of the remainder of the
tropical and subtropical Atlantic basin, producing moderate to
fresh trades S of 24N, and mostly gentle to moderate winds N of
24N. The only other notable features in the area are a surface
trough extending from 25N30W to 27N42W producing isolated moderate
convection, and a dissipating stationary front along 31N between
15W and 25W. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft N of 24N, and 5 to 7 ft
S of 24N.

The dying front is expected to completely dissipate by tonight
into Mon morning. Another cold front will move southward across
the western Atlantic on Wed, and stall on Thu. The front will then
move southward across the region as a low develops along the
frontal boundary and moves NE.

$$
Latto
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