[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits W Africa near 10N14W to 01N28W. The
ITCZ extends from 01N28W to 01N40W the mouth of the Amazon River
Basin near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N-05N between 21W-29W, and near the Amazon River between 40W-
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stalled cold front extends from Andros Island, Bahamas across
the Straits of Florida. Isolated showers were seen along the
boundary between the northern Florida Keys and Andros Island. A
1019 mb surface high pressure over NW Florida extends broad
ridging over much of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh E to
SE winds prevail across the S central and W Gulf where seas are
3-5 ft. Gentle to light anticyclonic winds prevail across the NE
Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft E of 90W. Expect SE to S winds over
the western half of the Gulf to increase slightly to fresh
tonight through Sun morning, with seas as high as 7 ft off the
coast of Texas. Looking ahead, a surface trough will develop
over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, shift westward into the
SW Gulf waters each night, and dissipate over the SW Gulf each
morning. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated
with this trough. Hazy sky conditions due to agricultural fires
in southeastern Mexico are likely across much of the Gulf on
Sun. A stationary front will linger across the northern Gulf
coast Tue and Wed with showers occurring along the boundary.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A low to mid-level trough moving across the Windward Islands and
far southeastern Caribbean Sea is accompanied by scattered
showers over Cuba the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. To the
far east of the Caribbean, a surface trough extending from the
15N59W to 10N61W is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms,
some could produce heavy rain across the Lesser Antilles. Mostly
dry conditions prevail across the remainder of the basin noted
from the latest water vapor imagery. A modest pressure gradient
across the basin is producing moderate tradewinds N of 16N and
fresh to strong trades S of 16N, strongest along the N coast of
Colombia with seas ranging from 5 to 7 ft, and 4 to 5 ft in the
Gulf of Honduras.

In the forecast, the ridge north of the area will support fresh
to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through
Thu. Winds will also pulse fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight through Thu night. A surge in moisture will
increase the likelihood of showers across the eastern Caribbean
tonight through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 60W: A cold front enters the forecast area from 31N62W
to 26N68W, then transitions to a stationary front to the central
Bahamas and continues across the Florida Straits. Scattered
showers are in the vicinity of the boundary. Moderate NE winds
are north of the front, over and east of the Bahamas. Gentle SE
winds prevail over the Old Bahama Channel. A 1021 mb surface
high pressure over the western Atlantic waters near NE Florida
extends a narrow ridge eastward over the waters to the north of
the NW Bahamas, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. Seas
are 5-7 ft north of 28N between 60W-75W, 1-3 ft in the Old
Bahama Channel and in the Bahamas, and 3-5 ft elsewhere west of
60W. Looking ahead, the stationary front will weaken by Sun as
the cold front continues to move across the Atlantic before it
dissipates by Mon evening. Another cold front will clip the
northern forecast waters on Wed, then stall on Thu before it
moves southward across the region.


East of 60W: Over the central subtropical Atlantic, broad
surface ridging is anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure near
31N45W. A surface ridge axis with moderate winds extends WSW to
23N68W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. An mid-level low is
centered near 27N49W. Mid-level divergence to the SE of the
associated troughing of the low is enhancing scattered showers
from 15N to 20N between 32W-49W. A surface trough is noted to
the northeast extending from 30N28W to 27N42W. A recent ASCAT
pass shows fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic from 05N-
20N between 30W-60W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Wind speeds over the
NE Atlantic from 20N-30N are gentle to moderate, due to ridging.
Seas across the eastern and central Atlantic are less than 5 ft
from 22N-30N.

$$

MTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net