[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082245
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits W Africa near 11N15W to 02N25W to
03N30W. The ITCZ extends from 03N30W to the mouth of the Amazon
River Basin near 00N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 00N-04N between 22W-50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen from 07N to 13N between 56W-62W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stalled cold front extends from Andros Island, Bahamas across
the Straits of Florida and the NW coast of Cuba to just offshore
of the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms
were seen N of the boundary between the northern Florida Keys and
Andros Island. A 1021 mb surface high pressure over NW Florida
extends broad ridging over much of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds prevail across the S central and W Gulf this
afternoon where seas are 3-5 ft. Gentle to light anticyclonic
winds prevail across the NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft. Expect SE
to S winds over the western half of the Gulf to increase slightly
to fresh tonight through Sun morning, with seas as high as 7 ft
off the coast of Texas. Looking ahead, a stationary front will
linger across the northern Gulf coast Tue and Wed with showers
occurring along the boundary.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A low to mid-level trough moving across the Windward Islands and
far southeastern Caribbean Sea is accompanied by scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms described above, some producing
heavy rain. In the far SW Caribbean, scattered moderate
convection is seen within 60 nm north of the coast of Panama.
Mostly dry conditions prevail across the remainder of the basin. A
modest pressure gradient across the basin is producing moderate
tradewinds N of 16N and fresh to strong trades S of 16N, strongest
along the N coast of Colombia.

The ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong trades in
the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras tonight through
Wednesday as high pressure strengthens. Seas will build to 7-10
ft in the central Caribbean by early Mon. Showers are expected to
increase in coverage across the southeastern Caribbean tonight
through early Mon, as the low to mid-level trough moves westward
across the southern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 60W: A cold front extends from just east of Bermuda to
25N75W to across the N central Bahamas and Andros Island, where it
has become stationary. Isolated moderate tstorms are along the
front across the Bahamas, while scattered showers and isolated
moderate tstorms are within 90 nm either side of the front
elsewhere. Moderate NE winds are north of the front, over and
east of the Bahamas. Gentle SE winds prevail over the Old Bahama
Channel. The front will weaken across the region by Sun night into
Mon. A 1021 mb surface high pressure over NW Florida extends
a narrow ridge eastward over the waters to the north of the NW
Bahamas, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. Seas are 5-7
ft north of 28N between 60W-75W, 1-3 ft in the Old Bahama Channel
and in the Bahamas, and 3-5 ft elsewhere west of 60W. Looking
ahead, another front will drift south of 30N across NE Florida Tue
night into Wed.

East of 60W: Over the central subtropical Atlantic, broad
surface ridging is anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure near
29N45W. A surface ridge axis with moderate winds extends WSW to
25N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. An upper-level low is
centered near 24N51W. Upper-level divergence to the SE of the
associated troughing of the upper-low is enhancing convection
moving across the Windward islands. A recent ASCAT pass shows
fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic from 05N-20N between
30W-60W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Wind speeds over the NE Atlantic
from 20N-30N are gentle to moderate, due to ridging. Seas across
the eastern and central Atlantic are less than 5 ft from 22N-30N.

$$
Stripling
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