[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat May 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits western Africa near 06N11W to 02N20W to
01N30W. The ITCZ extends from 01N30W to coastal Brazil near
02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 06N
And E of 21W, and about 200 nm north of the monsoon trough
between 20W to 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to 24N91W. Winds
are light to gentle south of the front and moderate northerlies
north of the front. Seas are 2-4 ft across the Gulf. A surface
trough is noted over the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered
showers present in the vicinity. SAB analysis of satellite
imagery indicates light to medium smoke south of 27N and west of
90W in the Gulf of Mexico from agricultural and wildfires fires
in southern Mexico.


For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it pushes
southward in the SE Gulf overnight. Moderate to fresh return
flow is expected in the western and central Gulf this weekend.
Hazy sky conditions due to agricultural fires in southeastern
Mexico are likely across the SW Gulf for several more days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1025 mb Bermuda High has shifted east-southeastward to 28N45W
in response to a cold front north of the Bahamas.  The reduced
pressure gradient is forcing only fresh E trades north of
Colombia and light to gentle E trades elsewhere across the
Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central and E Caribbean and
only 2-3 ft over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring south of 12N between 76W to 82W in the SW Caribbean
associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Winds will
become fresh to strong in the central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras Sat night through Tue night as high pressure builds to
the north.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W, a surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb Bermuda High
west-southwestward to 24N77W to the central Bahamas. As of 0300
UTC, A cold front extends from 29N70W to the Florida Straits
into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is noted
between 24N and 27N between 68W and 80W. Elsewhere, scattered
showers are occurring within 90 nm of the front and the trough.
SW winds north of 29N ahead of the front are fresh to strong,
while NW winds north of 29N behind the front are also fresh to
strong. Elsewhere the trades are moderate to fresh. Seas are 3
to 5 ft northeast of the Bahamas, 6-8 ft north of the front and
6 to 7 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 12N between 50W and 60W.

The cold front will reach from 31N65W to the central Bahamas on
Sat, then stall and weaken east of the Bahamas through Sun. A
cold front will move south of 30N into the waters east of
Florida Tue night and Wed.

East of 55W, a 1024 mb High is centered near 28N45W. NE to E
trades south of the ridge are only moderate to fresh. Seas are 3
to 5 ft north of 20N and 4 to 7 ft south of 20N. No significant
deep convection is occurring away from the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough.
As the Bermuda High builds in place, trades will strengthen to
fresh to strong Sat to Mon before relaxing again on Tue. Seas
will increase slightly in response. On Mon and Tue a N swell
will build seas north of 20N to 6 to 8 ft.

$$
MTorres
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