[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072242
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits western Africa near 11N15W to 04N19W to
02N31W. The ITCZ extends from 02N31W to coastal Brazil near
03S42.5W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
located east of 16W. Scattered moderate to strong convection from
03.5N to 06N between 17W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Everglades near 25N81W to
the W Gulf near 25N96W. A pre-frontal trough extends from the
Florida Straits to 27N76W. Winds are light to gentle south of the
front and moderate northerlies north of the front. Seas are 2-4
ft across the Gulf. Scattered showers exist within 60 nmi of the
front and the trough. SAB analysis of satellite imagery indicates
light to medium smoke south of 27N and west of 90W in the Gulf of
Mexico from agricultural and wildfires fires in southern Mexico.

The portion of the cold front across the eastern Gulf will push
southward east of 90W through tonight, while the western portion
will dissipate by morning. Moderate to fresh return flow is
expected in the western and central Gulf this weekend. Hazy sky
conditions due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are
likely across the SW Gulf for several more days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1024 mb Bermuda High has shifted east-southeastward to 28N45W
in response to a cold front north of the Bahamas.  The reduced
pressure gradient is forcing only fresh E trades north of
Colombia and light to gentle E trades elsewhere across the
Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central and E Caribbean and
only 2-3 ft over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring south of 11N in the SW Caribbean associated with
the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends from Costa Rica
near 09.5N76W to 10N85W.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds over
most of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are likely across
the central Caribbean Sun and Mon as high pressure builds to the
north.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 55W, a surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb Bermuda High
west-southwestward to 25N77W. A cold front extends from 31N75W
to the Florida peninsula at 25N77W. A pre-frontal trough extends
from 27N76W to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection
is noted between 24N and 27N between 74W and 80W. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are occurring within 90 nmi of the front and
the trough. SW winds north of 29N ahead of the front are fresh to
strong, while NW winds north of 29N behind the front are also
fresh to strong. Elsewhere the trades are moderate to fresh. Seas
are 3 to 5 ft northeast of the Bahamas, 6-8 ft north of the front
and 6 to 7 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 12N between 50W and 60W.

The cold front will move across the Florida Keys this evening and
tonight and into the Straits. The northern part of the front will
shift eastward across the northern waters through Sat night. A
cold front will move south of 30N into the waters east of Florida
Tue night.

East of 55W, a surface ridge extends between 1024 mb Bermuda
High at 28N45W to 36N13W. NE to E trades south of the ridge are
only moderate to fresh. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 20N and 4 to 7
ft south of 20N. No significant deep convection is occurring away
from the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough. As the Bermuda High builds in
place, trades will strengthen to fresh to strong Sat to Mon before
relaxing again on Tue. Seas will increase slightly in response.
On Mon and Tue a N swell will build seas north of 20N to 6 to 8
ft.

$$
Stripling
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