[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 06 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 03N20W, 02N23W, to 03N28W, and to Equator along
35W. No ITCZ was present. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong covers the area that is from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through SE Georgia, to the Florida Big
Bend, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to 24N96W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 60 nm on either side of the front between 85W and 96W.

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 92W/93W, from
26N southward to the coast of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is from 22N southward from 90W westward.

Hazy sky conditions are reducing the visibilities in the SW Gulf
of Mexico. The hazy sky conditions are associated with
agricultural fires that are taking place in southern Mexico.
It is likely for the hazy skies and areas of smoke to continue
for several more days.

The current stationary front extends from near Apalachicola in
Florida to 28N90W and to 25N96W. The eastern part of the front
will become a cold front, again, and it will push southward to
the southeastern Gulf by Friday evening. The remainder of the
front will weaken and dissipate. Moderate to fresh return flow
is expected in the western and central Gulf, during this weekend
and into early Monday, as high pressure in the wake of the front
shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 11N northward from 83W eastward. An upper level
trough passes through Puerto Rico to the coast of Nicaragua.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers most of the area.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, passing between 74W in
Colombia, through Panama and southern Costa Rica, beyond 88W in
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong in clusters is within 90 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough, between 77W and the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica.
Numerous strong is in Colombia from 04N to 06N between 68W and
71W. Scattered moderate to strong is within 100 nm of the coast
of Colombia from 03N to 06N in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Scattered strong rainshowers have been dissipating with time,
near the central coastal plains and the coastal waters of
Honduras. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated
moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The
clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

Fresh E to NE winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 74W and 77W. Sea heights that range from 6 feet to 7
feet are within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and
78W. Expect fresh winds within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 72W and 76W, and in the Gulf of Venezuela, by tonight.
Sea heights at 6 feet are in the coastal waters of Honduras,
Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, from 18.5N
southward from 86W westward. Sea heights at 6 feet are from 13N
to 14N between 68W and 69W to the north of Venezuela.

A ridge that is to the north of the area will support moderate
trade winds in most of the basin through Saturday. Stronger
trade winds are likely in the central Caribbean Sea on Sunday
and Monday, as high pressure builds to the north. Hazy sky
conditions and areas of smoke, due to agricultural fires in
Central America, are expected to continue through the end of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N80W to SE Georgia. A
stationary front continues from SE Georgia, beyond the Florida
Big Bend, into the north central Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough is 31N77W to 29N83W at the western coast of Florida.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong, are to
the northwest of the line that runs from 31N70W to the coast of
Florida just to the east of Lake Okeechobee.

A surface ridge extends from one 1021 mb high pressure center
that is near 29N49W, to a second 1021 mb high pressure center
that is near 28N61W, to the NW Bahamas. A 1024 mb high pressure
center is near 34N22W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 30W eastward.

A surface trough is along 32N32W 29N35W 24N36W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 250 nm on either side of the trough.

A cold front will move over the northwest waters on Thursday
night, and reach from 31N76W to the Straits of Florida on Friday
morning. The northern part of the front will continue eastward
across the northern forecast waters through Saturday night,
while weakening. A high pressure ridge will build along 31N in
the wake of the front through Sunday night. The ridge will shift
eastward on Monday night as another cold front approaches the
far NW waters.

$$
mt/ja
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