[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu May 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
11N14W to 04N20W to 00N36W. The ITCZ is south of the equator
between 36W and 44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted south of a line from 00N07W to 08N15W to
03N37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Panama City, FL, to the SW
Gulf offshore of Tampico, Mexico. A surface trough extends south
of the front from 24N95W to 18N94W. Moderate to fresh cyclonic
wind flow is around the trough in the southwest Gulf while gentle
anticyclonic flow is in the NE Gulf. Winds behind the front in
the NW Gulf are moderate to fresh from the NE. Seas are 4-5 ft in
the northwestern Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Hazy sky conditions
associated with agricultural fires over southern Mexico are
reducing visibilities across the SW Gulf of Mexico. Hazy skies and
areas of smoke are likely to continue for several more days.

The stationary front will drift across the northern Gulf today.
The eastern part of the front will push southward into the SE Gulf
by Fri evening. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected in
the western and central Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fresh easterly trades cover the majority of the basin,
except fresh to locally strong SE winds north of Honduras in the
NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. A mid-level ridge
north of the Greater Antilles is maintaining anticyclonic dry
conditions across the basin, limiting convective activity to a
few trade wind showers. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except 6-7 ft
in the Gulf of Honduras.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds over
most of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are likely across
the central Caribbean Sun and Mon as high pressure builds to the
north. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke due to agricultural
fires in Central America are expected to continue through the end
of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge extends across the entire subtropical Atlantic,
anchored by high pressure centers analyzed near 27N61W and
34N23W. This ridge is responsible for a large area of gentle to
moderate winds, 3 to 5 ft seas, and fair weather across most of
the central and western Atlantic Ocean, north of 20N. Moderate to
fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the waters
south of 20N. A surface trough in the eastern Atlantic extends
from 31N33W to 24N38W. An area of persistent showers is over the
western Atlantic from 29N to 31N and west of 77W.

A cold front will move east of northern Florida Thu night, and
reach from 31N76W to the Straits of Florida on Fri. The northern
part of the front will continue eastward across the northern
forecast waters through Sat night. High pressure will prevail
across the region Sun through Mon.

$$
Mundell
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