[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 04N20W to 00N38W. The ITCZ begins near 00N38W and
continues to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from the equator to 09N between 07W to 24W.
Another area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N
to 04N between 30W to 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Panama City, FL, to the SW
Gulf offshore of Tampico, Mexico. A surface trough extends from
a 1011 mb low pressure center in the Bay of Campeche, ahead of
the cold front. Moderate to fresh cyclonic flow is around the
trough in the southwest Gulf while gentle anticyclonic flow is
in the NE Gulf. Winds behind the front in the NW Gulf are
moderate to fresh from the NE. Seas are 4-6 ft in the western
Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Hazy sky conditions associated with
agricultural fires over southern Mexico are reducing
visibilities across the SW Gulf of Mexico. Hazy skies and areas
of smoke are likely to continue for several more days.

The stationary front will remain in the northern Gulf through
this morning. The eastern part of the front will push southward
to the SE Gulf by Fri evening. Moderate to fresh southeast winds
are expected in the western and central Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fresh easterly trades cover the majority of the basin,
except fresh to strong SE winds are likely still occurring
north of Honduras in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Honduras. A mid-upper level anticyclonic ridge aloft north of
the Greater Antilles is maintaining fairly dry conditions
across the basin, limiting shower activity to a few training
cells in the trade wind flow. Seas range from 4-6 ft and are
up to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate to occasionally
fresh trade winds over much of the basin through Sat. Stronger
trades are likely in the central Caribbean on Sun and into early
next week as high pressure builds to the north. Fresh to strong
southeast winds in the NW Caribbean, including Gulf of Honduras,
will diminish Thu. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke due to
agricultural fires in Central America are expected to continue
through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An outflow boundary moved across northern Florida yesterday
evening generating showers and thunderstorms that pushed
offshore
of NE Florida. An area of ongoing showers and thunderstorms is
over the western Atlantic from 29N to 31N and west of 77W.
Elsewhere, a broad ridge extends across the entire subtropical
Atlantic, anchored by high pressure centers analyzed near 28N63W
and near 34N23W. This ridge is responsible for a large area of
gentle to moderate winds, 3 to 5 ft seas, and fair weather
across
most of the central and western Atlantic Ocean, north of 20N,
east of 50W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
prevail across the waters south of 20N. The only other surface
feature of note is continuous troughing over the eastern
Atlantic
extending from 31N32W to 26N35W.

A cold front will move east of northern Florida Thu
night, and reach from 31N76W to the Straits of Florida on Fri.
The northern part of the front will continue eastward across the
northern forecast waters through Sat night. High pressure will
prevail across the region Sun through Mon.


$$
Mora
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