[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052114
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of western Africa
near 09N14W to 03N21W to 00N34W. The ITCZ begins near 00N34W and
continues to 01N42W to near 03N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N E of 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Mobile, Alabama, to near Tampico,
Mexico. Thunderstorms are ahead of the front, within about 90 nm
of the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A surface trough remains in
the western Gulf, ahead of the cold front, from 28N91W to 18N93W,
but the low pressure previously along the trough has dissipated.
Hazy sky conditions associated with agricultural fires over
southern Mexico are reducing visibilities across the SW Gulf of
Mexico. Hazy skies and areas of smoke are likely to continue for
several more days. Across the remainder of the Gulf basin,
generally fair weather prevails with gentle to moderate southerly winds.

The cold front will become stationary over the northern Gulf this
evening. High pressure building in behind it will act to push the
eastern part of the front to the far eastern Gulf by early Fri
evening. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected in the
western and central Gulf this weekend and into early next week as
the high pressure shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally moderate to locally fresh easterly trades cover the
majority of the basin, except fresh to strong SE winds are
likely still continuing north of Honduras in the NW Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Honduras. Satellite imagery shows a line of
moderate convection, associated with the monsoon trough that
extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean across Panama to northern
Colombia, continues over the southwest Caribbean S of 11N.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate to occasionally
fresh trade winds over much of the basin through Sat. Stronger
trades are likely in the central Caribbean on Sun and into early
next week as high pressure builds to the north. Fresh to strong
southeast winds in the NW Caribbean, including Gulf of Honduras,
will diminish Thu. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke due to
agricultural fires in Central America are expected to continue
through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge extends across the entire subtropical Atlantic,
anchored by high pressure centers analyzed near 35N23W, 33N38W,
and a 1024 mb high near 27N61W. This ridge is responsible
for a large, expansive area of gentle to moderate winds, 2 to 4
ft seas, and fair weather across most of the central and western
Atlantic Ocean, north of 15N-20N, east of 50W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail across the waters south
of 15N-20N. The only other surface feature of note is a trough
over the eastern Atlantic that extends from 31N32W to 26N35W.
Convection previously associated with this feature dissipated this
afternoon.

The ridge along 27N will support gentle to moderate winds across
most of the region through tonight. A cold front will move over
the northwest waters Thu night, and reach from 31N76W to the
Straits of Florida Fri morning. The northern part of the front
will continue eastward across the northern forecast waters through
Sat night while weakening. A high pressure ridge will build along
31N in the wake of the front through Sun night. The ridge will
shift eastward Mon as another cold front approaches the far NW
waters.

$$
KONARIK
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