[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 03N34W
to 00N50W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is approaching
the west coast of Africa, and is currently affecting parts of
Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is also noted from the equator to 06N between
08W-20W. Elsewhere convection is limited.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to affect the north-central
Gulf, particularly N of 27N between 87W and 90W. A squall line is
analyzed in this area. Strong thunderstorms can not be ruled out
for this evening over parts of the central Gulf coast. Some of
these storms could become severe, with strong gusty winds,
frequent lightning and isolated waterspouts. This convective
activity is being enhanced by a diffluent pattern aloft.
Scatterometer data show fresh to strong southerly winds just
ahead of the squall line. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly
winds are noted over much of the Gulf. Seas are generally 1-3 ft
E of 87W, and W of 95W to the coast of Mexico. Elsewhere, seas
of 4-6 ft prevail in a southerly wind flow.

Areas of smoke and haze due to ongoing agricultural fires over
portions of Central America and Mexico are still noted on visible
satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly S of 26N. This
may occasionally reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, Fresh to strong SE return flow will prevail
through Tue night over much of the Gulf. A weak cold front will
sink slowly into the NW Gulf Tue night and reach from Louisiana
to the SW Gulf Wed afternoon before stalling and weakening.
Winds should diminish to moderate or weaker across the Gulf on
Thu and Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The edge of a scatterometer pass provided observations of moderate
to fresh E-SE winds over the western Caribbean S of 19N and W of
84W. These winds are likely occurring in the Gulf of Honduras.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades prevail, with the  of light to
gentle winds in the lee of Cuba and over the SW Caribbean. Seas
are 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, 3-4 ft across much of the
east and central Caribbean, and 1-3 in the lee of Cuba and the SW
Caribbean where winds are weaker.

Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
are noted across the basin moving westward, and producing
isolated to scattered passing showers. As yesterday afternoon,
some convective activity is developing over the Greater Antilles
due to local effects as daytime heating, local sea breezes and
mountain lifting. Narrow lines of clouds, also called streamers
are noted in the lee side of the Lesser Antilles. Areas of smoke
and haze are observed on visible satellite imagery over the Gulf
of Honduras from agricultural fires in Central America.

For the forecast, a weak ridge extends from a 1023 mb Bermuda
High at 32N65W to the SE United States. The ridge is supporting
fresh SE trades over the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon. These
winds should increase up to strong tonight through Wed night as
the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and
lower pressures over Central America. Moderate to fresh E trades
will continue elsewhere across the basin through at least Fri
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W of 65W: A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N50W,
then continues SW to near 28N59W where it transitions to a
stationary front to NE Florida. Mainly low level clouds with
isolated showers are associated with the frontal boundary.
Moderate northerly winds are N of the cold front with mainly
light to gentle winds on either side of the stationary part of
the front. The frontal remnants will drift northward and
gradually dissipate tonight. North of the front, a weak high
pressure ridge extends from a 1023 mb Bermuda High at 32N65W to
the SE United States. High pressure will reorganize across the
western Atlantic on Mon and Tue leading to moderate to fresh S
winds north of 25N and west of 75W, and moderate to fresh SE
tradewinds south of 25N. These winds will relax to gentle or
moderate on Wed and Thu. A new cold front is anticipated to reach
the Atlantic waters north of the Bahamas on Fri.

E of 65W: Another cold front is clipping the discussion area
near 30N30W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence
of a surface ridge, with a second center of 1023 mb located near
31N39W. A weak upper-level low situated near 27N38W is producing
some shower activity. Moderate trade winds prevail across the
tropical Atlantic east of 60W, where seas are 4-5 ft. Fresh to
strong N winds are occurring between the west coast of Africa and
the Cabo Verde Islands where seas are 8-9 ft. A low pressure
located S of the easternmost island of the Azores will move
southward into the forecast area on Mon and open-up into a trough
near 27W-28W.

$$
mt/ah
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