[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 03 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 03N20W, 01N30W, and to 01N34W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N34W, to 01N38W, to the Equator along 43W, to
the Equator along 49W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is within 200 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and
within 90 nm to the north of the monsoon trough, between 15W and
21W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 05N
southward from 12W eastward, and within 120 nm to the north of
the monsoon trough and within 90 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough, between 20W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong, are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge is along 24N/25N, spanning the entire Gulf of
Mexico. A warm front is inland, from NW Mississippi to SE
Georgia. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of
Mexico to the west of the line from north central Florida into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong has been moving from SE Louisiana
toward SW Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh SE winds, and sea heights reaching 6 feet, are about 240
nm to the north of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Areas of smoke and haze, due to ongoing agricultural fires in
parts of northern Central America, and in Mexico, still are
apparent in satellite imagery, covering the western Gulf of
Mexico, mainly from 26N southward. It is possible that the smoke
may reduce the visibilities occasionally.

Fresh to occasionally strong SE to S winds will prevail through
Tuesday in much of the Gulf of Mexico. A weak cold front will
move slowly into the NW Gulf on Tuesday night. The cold front
will  reach from Louisiana to the SW Gulf on Wednesday
afternoon, before stalling and weakening. Fresh N winds are
expected behind the front, from Tuesday night into Wednesday, in
the far western Gulf. The wind speeds should diminish to
moderate or weaker, in the Gulf of Mexico, on Thursday and
Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 13N northward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow,
that is associated with an upper level Atlantic Ocean trough,
covers the area from 68W eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 11N74W in Colombia, through the
border of Panama and Colombia, beyond southern Panama, and
07N83W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters in general, is
in Colombia. Specifically: scattered to numerous strong is
within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, in NW
Venezuela and Colombia, between 73W and 75W.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow. The comparatively greatest
concentration of clouds and possible precipitation is from 80W
eastward.

Fresh SE winds, and six foot sea heights, cover the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, from the coast of Honduras, northward.

A surface ridge extends along 27N in the Atlantic. The ridge is
contributing to fresh to strong SE trades in the Gulf of
Honduras. These winds should continue through Wednesday night,
as the surface pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic
Ocean ridge and lower pressures in Central America. Moderate to
fresh E trade winds will continue elsewhere in the basin through
at least Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N50W to 27N60W, to 28N70W. The
front is dissipating stationary from 28N70W to 29N77W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 150 nm to the
southeast and south of the cold front from 60W eastward.

A surface trough is along 27N54W 22N55W 18N57W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 18N to 27N between 50W and 60W.

A cold front extends from a 1016 mb low pressure center that is
near 33N23W, to 30N33W and 29N27W. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from
25N northward between the Canary Islands and 30W. Broad upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N
northward from 30W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near the Madeira Archipelago.

A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 32N40W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between the 31N50W-27N60W cold front and the
33N23W-to-29N27W cold front.

A weakening stationary front extends from 28N65W to 29N77W. The
frontal remnants will drift northward, and dissipate tonight.
High pressure will reorganize in the W Atlantic Ocean, on Monday
and Tuesday, leading to moderate to fresh S winds north of 25N
and west of 75W, and moderate to fresh SE tradewinds south of
25N. These winds will relax to gentle or moderate on Wednesday
and Thursday. A new cold front is anticipated to reach the
Atlantic Ocean waters to the north of the Bahamas on Friday.

$$
mt/ah
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