[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 00N47W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails between
Africa and South America, generally from 05S-07N E of 25W, and
scattered showers W of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, the squall line over the northern Gulf has
weaken. Strong thunderstorms can not be ruled out for this
afternoon. Some of these storms could become severe, with strong
wind gusts, frequent lightning and isolated waterspouts. A
surface trough has been analyzed from the Louisiana coast near
30N90W to 245N92W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
within 30 nm of the trough. The thunderstorms are being enhanced
by upper-level diffluence, due to the positioning of a mid-upper
level shortwave trough over Texas.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted over the
western Gulf and fresh SE winds NW of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Gentle E-SE winds are east of 86W. Gentle wind speeds are also
in the SW Gulf. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail from the NW Yucatan to
the Texas/Louisiana border, with 3-4 ft seas over the west-
central and SW Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf.

Fresh southerly return flow will prevail early this week over
much of the basin, with occasional locally strong SE winds over
the south-central and SW Gulf Mon night and Tue. Thunderstorms
associated could be strong to severe with gusty winds. Areas of
smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf from agricultural
fires in SE Mexico. Fresh to strong SE return flow will prevail
through Tue night over much of the Gulf. A weak cold front will
sink slowly into the NW Gulf Tue night and reach from Louisiana
to the SW Gulf Wed night before stalling and weakening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Subsidence and dry air cover the Caribbean Sea, as shown by
GOES-16 water vapor channels. There are scattered showers over
the far SE Caribbean, from a line extending from the coast of
Venezuela to Guadeloupe Island. Isolated showers and tstorms are
noted in the far SW Caribbean south 11N to the coast of Panama
and Costa Rica. The remainder of the Caribbean is free of
precipitation due to the dry air. ASCAT pass showed moderate
trades across most of the Caribbean, except for light to gentle
winds in the lee of Cuba and gentle NE-E winds in the far SW
Caribbean. The ASCAT pass missed the Gulf of Honduras, where
fresh E winds are likely occurring. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf
of Honduras and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge is over Bermuda is contributing to
fresh E to SE trades over the Gulf of Honduras today. These winds
should increase up to strong tonight through Wed night as the
pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower
pressures over Central America. Moderate to fresh trades will
continue elsewhere across the basin through at least Thu night.
Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf of Honduras
from agricultural fires in Central America.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 29N54W to 26N60W to 28N74W, where it
transitions to a stationary front to 29N80W and continues across
the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers
and isolated tstorms are within 45 nm of the front mainly east
of  60W. Moderate N winds are north of this front E of 57W. Two
surface ridge axis are located to the north and southeast of the
front. The ridge axis to the east extends from 57W to 19W. Ridge
E of 60W, light easterly winds are noted with seas 4 to 6 ft
south of 28N and 8-9 ft north of 29N. In the western Atlantic
near the coast of FL and the Bahamas, seas remain around 2 to 4
ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the weakening cold front is
stalling  today. The frontal remnants will then drift northward
and gradually dissipate tonight. South of the front, high
pressure will reorganize across the W Atlc Mon and Tue leading
to moderate to fresh S winds north of 25N and west of 75W, and
moderate to fresh SE tradewinds south of 24N. These winds will
relax to gentle to moderate on Wed and Thu.

Farther east, a weak upper-level low near 27N40W is producing
some showers. Moderate trade winds prevail from 07N-22N across
the tropical Atlantic east of 60W, where seas are 4-5 ft. Strong
N winds are occurring within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco,
where seas are 8-9 ft. These winds will persist through Mon.

$$
MTorres
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