[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near
10N14W to 07N16W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
01N30W TO 01S35W to 02S42W. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection prevails between Africa and South America, generally
from 05S-06N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A squall line has formed in the NW Gulf, and extends from the
Louisiana coast near 30N92W to 24N96W as of 0900 UTC. Strong
thunderstorms are within 30 nm of the squall line. The
thunderstorms are being enhanced by upper-level diffluence, due
to the positioning of a mid-upper level shortwave trough over
Texas. The squall line will shift eastward to the north-central
Gulf of Mexico by early afternoon today. Some of these storms
could be severe, with strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and
isolated waterspouts.

Elsewhere, fresh SE winds are noted to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Gentle E-SE winds are east of 86W. Gentle wind speeds
are also in the SW Gulf. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail from the NW
Yucatan to the Texas/Louisiana border, with 3-4 ft seas over the
west-central and SW Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf.

Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh southerly return flow
will prevail early this week over much of the basin, with
occasional locally strong SE winds over the south-central and SW
Gulf Mon night and Tue. A weak cold front will sink slowly into
the NW Gulf Tue evening and reach SE Louisiana to the W Bay of
Campeche Wed night before stalling and weakening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Subsidence and dry air cover the Caribbean Sea, as shown by
GOES-16 water vapor channels. There may be isolated showers over
the far SE Caribbean, close to the coast of Venezuela. Isolated
showers and tstorms are noted in the far SW Caribbean south 11N to
Panama and NW Colombia. An isolated shower is also noted near the
Tiburon Peninsula of SW Haiti. The remainder of the Caribbean is
free of any precipitation due to the dry air.

An earlier ASCAT pass showed moderate trades across most of the
Caribbean, except for light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba and
gentle NE-E winds in the far SW Caribbean. The ASCAT pass missed
the Gulf of Honduras, where fresh E winds are likely occurring.
Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

Fresh E to SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through
today before increasing to fresh to strong tonight through Wed
night as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge
and lower pressures over Central America. Gentle to moderate
winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through today,
becoming moderate to fresh across most of the Caribbean throughout
the coming week. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW
Gulf of Honduras from agricultural fires in Central America.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N56W to 27N62W to 27N76W. A
stationary front continues W along 27N to West Palm Beach Florida.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 45 nm of the
front mainly east of 59W. Moderate E winds are north of this
front. A surface ridge axis with light to gentle winds is located
to the south of the front from 23N-27N. The ridge axis extends
from the NW Bahamas east to 25N71W to 26N54W to a 1024 mb high
pressure near 30N38W. Seas of 6-8 ft are occurring north of 28N
between 50W-76W, while 2-4 ft seas prevail east of the Bahamas and
north of the Caribbean.

For the forecast west of 65W, the front will weaken as it stalls
along 27N this morning. The frontal remnants will then drift N
this afternoon and gradually dissipate this evening. The high
pressure ridge south of the front will persist east of 75W through
today. High pressure will reorganize across the W Atlc Mon and
Tue leading to moderate to fresh southerly winds N of 25N and W of
75W, and moderate to fresh tradewinds S of 24N.

Farther east, a weak upper-level low near 26N42W is producing some
showers. Moderate trade winds prevail from 07N-22N across the
tropical Atlantic east of 60W, where seas are 4-5 ft. Strong N
winds are occurring within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco, where
seas are 8-9 ft. These winds will persist through Mon.

$$
Hagen
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