[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the Texas coast by early Wed evening and will move quickly
across the entire basin by noon Thu. Behind the front, strong to
near gale force northerly winds are expected across much of the
northern and western Gulf, except with frequent gusts to gale
force offshore Texas through the western Florida Panhandle Wed
night into Thu morning. Gale-force winds will develop near
Tampico, Mexico early Thu morning and spread to near Veracruz,
Mexico by Thu evening. Most of the Gulf will experience wave
heights in the range of 10-12 ft on Thu behind the front.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient remains across
the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north of the
basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia. This gradient
will continue to support fresh to near gale force winds offshore
of northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the overnight
and early morning hours. These conditions are expected to
continue through Wed night. Wave heights are expected to peak
around 13 ft during the late night/early morning hours with the
gale force winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both
warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
11N15W to 04N20W, where latest scatterometer indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ to 02N25W and to 00N39W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between
17W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from northeastern Texas east-southeast to
across the southeastern states. The earlier noted scattered
showers and thunderstorm activity that was over the NE Gulf has
shifted well inland and weakened. Mainly moderate southeast
winds are across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 3-6 ft in
the western Gulf and 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, see the Special Features section above
regarding strong to gale force winds Wed night and Thu behind a
strong cold front. Winds across the Gulf will then diminish by
the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. See
above.

GOES-16 satellite imagery shows diminishing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms along and inland eastern border of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and over the southwestern Caribbean
south of about 13N and west of 79W. No significant areas of
precipitation are seen elsewhere, except for scattered showers
and thunderstorms that developed this afternoon over some
sections of central Cuba between 79W-83W and just inland the
coast of east-central Cuba. ASCAT data from this afternoon
showed strong trades across the central Caribbean between 67W-
79W, south of 18N, with fresh trades elsewhere from the Lesser
Antilles to the coast of Nicaragua. Near-gale force winds are
seen within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia, south of 13N and
east of 77.5W. Moderate trades are in the NW Caribbean, except
for fresh in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas range from 8-11 ft in the
south-central to SW Caribbean, 5-8 ft in the E Caribbean, 4-6 ft
in the Gulf of Honduras and 2-4 ft in the extreme NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure across the Atlantic will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the
south-central Caribbean through the 5-day forecast period, with
winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight
and Wed night. Fresh trade winds will remain elsewhere across
the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeast
winds are expected across the Windward Passage through Thu
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 50W: A cold front extends from near 32N56W to 31N65W,
where it transitions to a stationary front to 31N70W and warm
front from there to inland southeastern Georgia. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the warm front. The
front will lift north of the area this evening. High pressure
ridging covers the remainder of this portion of the Atlantic.
ASCAT data from this afternoon showed  gentle to moderate winds
continuing from 25N to the front, between 50W-80W. Fresh trades
extend south of 24N to the Greater Antilles. Seas of 5-8 ft
are over the western Atlantic.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge over the western
Atlantic will build along 29N over the next day or so. Moderate
to fresh winds will continue south of the ridge, with fresh to
strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through
Thu night. A cold front is forecast to move off northeastern
Florida Wed night into Thu. The front will extend from near
Bermuda to western Cuba on Fri, and from near 32N61W to 27N65W
and to central Cuba Sat. Fresh to strong winds with seas
building to 7-10 ft are expected in the wake of this front.

Farther east, a cold front extends from a 1004 mb low that
is north of the discussion area near 34N25W with associated gale
conditions to 32N24W to 25N29W to 23N37W and to 23N48W. Fresh to
strong winds are on both sides of the front, north of 26N
between 24W-38W. Fresh to strong trades are across the tropical
Atlantic from 06N- 21N between 35W- 60W. Seas of 12-17 ft in
large NW-N swell will affect waters north of 26N between 23W-38W
through Wed morning.

$$
Aguirre
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