[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the Texas coast by early Wed evening and will move quickly
across the entire basin by noon Thu. Behind the front, strong to
near gale force northerly winds are expected across much of the
northern and western Gulf, with frequent gusts to gale force
offshore Texas through the western Florida Panhandle Wed night
into Thu morning. Gale force winds will develop near Tampico,
Mexico early Thu morning and spread to near Veracruz, Mexico by
Thu evening. Most of the Gulf will experience seas of 10-12 ft
on Thursday, behind the front.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient prevails
across the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north
of the basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia. This
gradient will continue to support fresh to near gale force winds
offshore of northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the
overnight and early morning hours. These conditions are expected
to continue through Wed night. Seas will peak around 13 ft
during the late night/early morning hours with the gale force
winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both
warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
11N15W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N39W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted within 150 nm
on either side of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends across the northern Gulf Coast from the
Florida Big Bend to New Orleans to Houston. Scattered showers
and tstorms are near the boundary over northern Florida between
Jacksonville and Tallahassee. Most of the precipitation has
exited the Gulf waters, except for an isolated shower or two
near the coast of the Florida Panhandle. The latest ASCAT data
pass shows mainly moderate SE winds across most of the Gulf of
Mexico. Seas are 3-6 ft in the western Gulf and 1-3 ft in the NE
Gulf.

For the forecast, see the Special Features section above
regarding strong to gale force winds Wed night and Thu behind a
strong cold front. Winds across the Gulf will then diminish by
the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. See
above.

Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate showers and tstorms
along the eastern border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, extending
for 60 nm into the SW Caribbean. No significant areas of
precipitation are seen elsewhere. The latest ASCAT data pass
shows strong trades across the central Caribbean between
67W-79W, south of 18N, with fresh trades elsewhere from the
Lesser Antilles to the coast of Nicaragua. Near-gale force winds
are seen within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia, south of 13N
and east of 77.5W. Moderate trades are in the NW Caribbean,
except for fresh in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas range from 8-11
ft in the south-central to SW Caribbean, 5-8 ft in the E
Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 2-4 ft in the
extreme NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure across the Atlantic will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the
south-central Caribbean through the 5-day forecast period, with
winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight
and Wed night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across
the E and central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are
expected across the Windward Passage through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 50W: A cold front extends from 32N59W to 30N70W. The
front transitions to a warm front from 30N70W to St. Augustine
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are near the
warm front. The front will lift north of the area today. 1028 mb
high pressure centered near 30N54W extends surface ridging to
the NW Bahamas. The latest ASCAT data pass shows gentle to
moderate winds prevailing from 25N to the front, between
50W-80W. Fresh trades extend south of 24N to the Greater
Antilles. Seas of 4-8 ft prevail across the W Atlantic.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge over the western
Atlantic will build along 29N over the next day or so. Moderate
to fresh winds will prevail south of the ridge, with fresh to
strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through
Thu night. A cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed
night into Thu. The front will extend from near Bermuda to
western Cuba on Fri, and from 32N61W to central Cuba Sat. Fresh
to strong winds with seas building to 7-10 ft are expected in
the wake of the front.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N26W to 26N31W to
24N39W to 24N47W. ASCAT shows fresh to strong winds on both
sides of the front, north of 26N between 24W-38W. Fresh to
strong trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic from 06N-21N
between 35W-60W. Seas of 12-17 ft in large NW-N swell will
affect waters north of 26N between 23W-38W through Wed morning.

$$
Hagen
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