[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-force Winds Warning: NE gale-force winds are
present, now, from 11N to 11.5N between 74.5W and 76W. A tight
surface pressure gradient in the south central Caribbean Sea,
between high pressure to the north of the basin and lower
pressure in northern Colombia, will continue to support fresh to
near gale-force winds, offshore northern Colombia, pulsing to
gale-force especially during the overnight and early morning
hours, for the next few days. The sea heights will range from 8
feet to 10 feet. Please, read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center, on the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/marine, for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale-force Winds Warning: A cold front is passing
just to the north of Tallahassee in Florida, to Mexico Beach in
Florida, to the Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W to 25N96W, and to the
coast of Mexico near 21N97.5W. NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, are from 21N to 25N
between 96W and 98W. Please, read the NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center, on the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/marine, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from
05N18W, 01N26W to the Equator along 33W. Precipitation:
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 07N
southward between 13W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing just to the north of Tallahassee in
Florida, to Mexico Beach in Florida, to the Gulf of Mexico near
28N90W to 25N96W, and to the coast of Mexico near 21N97.5W.
NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to
10 feet, are from 21N to 25N between 96W and 98W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and areas of rain, are
to the north of the line that passes through 27N80W, to 26N86W
22N90W 21N97W.

A surface ridge passes through the NW Bahamas, to Lake
Okeechobee in south Florida to 26N90W in the Gulf of Mexico.

The current cold front, is moving across the NW Gulf of Mexico.
The front is extending from 30N85W to 27N92W to 22N97W. Strong
to gale-force northerly winds and building seas currently are
expected from 20N to 25N and west of 96W. These conditions will
dissipate overnight. The front will extend from central Florida
to the central Bay of Campeche on Monday afternoon. The front
will become weak and stationary by late on Monday, then it will
dissipate on Monday night. A second cold front will move off the
Texas coast by Wednesday evening. Fresh to strong winds are
expected behind the second cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 20N58W, to 17N68W, to
14N75W, to Costa Rica.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is to the north and
northwest of the line that passes through 15N60W 14N70W 12N76W,
to the coast of Panama along 79W.

A surface trough is along 10N74W in northern Colombia, to the
Colombia/Panama border, beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and
locally strong rainshowers, in individual clusters, are in
Colombia, to the SE of the surface trough. Please refer to the
forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local
meteorological offices for more details.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure in the Atlantic Ocean will continue to support
fresh to strong trade winds in the  south central Caribbean Sea
through the forecast period. The wind speeds will be pulsing to
gale-force near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade
winds will prevail elsewhere across the E and central Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras
through early Monday. Mainly fresh NE winds are expected in the
Windward Passage through Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N43W, to 31N52W to 32N58W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N northward between
30W and 70W.

A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 28N45W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 30N
between 30W and 65W.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is between the Canary Islands and
30N, between 17W and 18W.  Precipitation: scattered moderate is
within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.

A surface ridge is along 30N65W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond Lake
Okeechobee in south Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.A. coast
tonight. The front will reach from 31N72W to central Florida on
Monday afternoon, stall and weaken in the north waters on Mon
night, then move northward on Tuesday. Moderate to fresh winds
will prevail to the south of the ridge, with fresh to strong
winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through
Wednesday night. A second  cold front is forecast to move off NE
Florida from Wednesday night into Thursday, reaching from near
Bermuda to central Cuba on Friday. Fresh to strong winds are
expected in the wake of the front.

$$
mt/era
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