[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2325 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the south-
central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and
lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support
fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia,
pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning
hours. These conditions are expected to continue through the
middle of the week. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late
night/early morning hours with the gale force winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front over the western Gulf
of Mexico will continue to move SE across the area, NW winds
reaching gale-force are expected to develop S of 24N west of the
front this afternoon and continue through Monday morning. Seas
will range between 8-12 ft with the strongest winds.

Please read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center on the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on these warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 01N24W. The ITCZ continues from 01N24W to
01S37W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 02S to 05N E of 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A cold front extends from 29N91W to 25N97W, moving southeastward
with latest ASCAT pass showing fresh to strong northerly winds
along the Texas coast north of South Padre Island to Galveston.
Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are noted
within 90 n mi of the front. A surface ridge extends from the
Atlantic and across the eastern two-thirds of the basin supporting
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the area. Patchy
dense fog is still noted over portions of the extreme western
Gulf to the south of the cold front.

The cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near
Veracruz Mexico tonight. Strong to gale force northerly winds and
building seas will follow the front through early Mon morning.
The front will extend from central Florida to central Bay of
Campeche on Mon afternoon, become stationary late on Mon, then
lift northward Mon night into Tue while weakening. A second cold
front will move off the Texas coast by Wed evening. Fresh to
strong winds are expected behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

Latest scatterometer data depicts near-gale-force winds across
the south-central Caribbean within 90 nm of the Colombia coast.
Fresh to strong trades are noted across much of the central
Caribbean, the approach to the WindWard Passage, and southwest of
Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the
basin. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in the central Caribbean,
except 9-13 ft offshore of northern Colombia, and mainly in the
5-7 ft range elsewhere. Fair weather conditions prevail across the
region, with quick-moving showers embedded in the trade wind
flow.

High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh
to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean through the
forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast
of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere
across the E and central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will
continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon. Mainly fresh
NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage through Wed
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin inside the
discussion area, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 28N42W.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 24N W of 25W with
seas in the 7 to 10 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds
are N of 24N and W of 25W with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. Over
the extreme eastern Atlantic, a 1012 mb low is centered near the
Canary Islands at 29N17W. Isolated moderate convection is within
100 nmi of the low. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds are noted N
of 25N and E of 25W.

The cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will move off the southeastern
U.S. coast tonight, reach from 31N72W to central Florida Mon afternoon,
stall and weaken over the north waters on Mon night, then lift northward
on Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of the ridge, with
fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through
Wed night. Another cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed
night into Thu reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri.
Fresh to strong winds are expected in the wake of the front.

$$ Torres
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