[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the
south-central Caribbean Sea between high pressure north of the
basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to
support fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern
Colombia, pulsing to gale force especially during the overnight
and early morning hours. Similar conditions are forecast through
the middle of next week. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the
late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds. Please
read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 03N20W to 0N26W. The ITCZ continues from 0N26W to
04S37W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N-06N between 03W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic Ocean
to across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, supporting
moderate SE winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow over
the western half of the gulf. Shallow moisture is supporting
isolated showers over the NE gulf while a plume of low-level
moisture shown in Layered Precipitable Water imagery supports
areas of dense fog over the north-central and NW gulf.

Fresh to strong winds will develop near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula tonight into the early morning hours due to
local effects. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico
Sun morning following by fresh to strong northerly winds. Winds
will reach minimal gale force Sun afternoon through Sun night near
the Tampico area, with seas building up to 10 or 11 ft. The front
will extend from central Florida to central Bay of Campeche on
Mon afternoon, become stationary late on Mon, then lift northward
Mon night into Tue while weakening. A second cold front will move
off the Texas coast Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are expected
behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea offshore of
northern Colombia.

Fresh to strong trades are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, across
the approach to the WindWard Passage, south of Hispaniola,
southwest of Puerto Rico and in the south-central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the basin. Seas are
in the 8-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, the highest
offshore of northern Colombia, and mainly in the 5-7 ft range
elsewhere. Mostly fair weather conditions prevail across the
region, with isolated to widely scattered showers embedded in the
trade wind flow.

High pressure across the west-central Atlantic will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean
through Thu night, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast
of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere
south of 18N and E of 80W through Thu. Fresh to strong winds will
continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon, and in the
Windward Passage through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough in the central Atlantic extends from 31N55W to
19N60W, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible near the
trough axis. A 1008 mb area of low pressure is located just south
of Madeira with scattered moderate convection within 210 nm in
the north quadrant of the low, including over Madeira. This low
is stationary and is producing gale force winds north-northeast of
the discussion area. A surface trough extends from the low to
across the Canary islands to near 25N20W. A 1032 mb high pressure
center is near 33N39W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is between the area of low pressure and
the surface trough from 31N55W to 19N60W, light to gentle north of
30N, fresh to strong south of 30N and east of 55W, and moderate
to fresh elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range south of 27N and
east of 65W, and 4-7 ft north of 27N and east of 65W.

To the west, a surface ridge extends along 29N to across northern
Florida. Moderate to fresh trades are noted south of 25N, with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 25N. Seas are in the
4-6 ft range south of 25N, and in the 3-4 ft range north of 25N.
Isolated showers are possible across the Bahamas in the trade wind
flow.

A ridge along 29N will prevail through the remainder of the
weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast
Sun night, reach from 31N72W to central Florida Mon afternoon,
stall and weaken on Tue, then lift northward Tue night and Wed.
Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of the ridge, with the
highest winds expected near the Windward Passage into early next
week.

$$
Ramos
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