[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the
south-central Caribbean Sea between high pressure north of the
basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to
support fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern
Colombia, pulsing to gale force especially during the overnight
and early morning hours. Similar conditions are forecast through
the middle of next week. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the
late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds. Please
read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 00N25W to
03S30W to 02N49W just offshore of northern Brazil. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-06N
between 14W-17W, from 03S-03N between 25W-30W, and within 180 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 35W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic Ocean
to across the southern U.S. Gulf of Mexico states along 30N/31N.
Southerly return flow dominates the entire basin. Fresh to strong
winds are in the central and south-central Gulf, with moderate to
fresh SE-S winds elsewhere in the basin, except light to moderate
in the far northeast Gulf. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in the
central Gulf where the strongest winds are, and 3-5 ft elsewhere
in the basin, except 3 ft or less in the far northeast Gulf.
Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible from 20N-27N,
west of 87W ahead of a mid-upper level trough moving into central
Texas and north-central Mexico. Areas of dense fog were noted
across the northern Gulf coastal waters this morning, although it
has dissipated in the past couple of hours.

Fresh to strong winds north of the Yucatan peninsula will shift
westward into the south-central Gulf later today. A cold front
will move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico Sun morning, reach
from the northeast Gulf to the Bay of Campeche on Mon, become
stationary Tue morning, then lift northward as a weak warm front
Tue night. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in
the wake of the front. A second cold front will move off the
Texas coast Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea offshore of
northern Colombia.

Fresh to strong trades are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, across
the approach to the WindWard Passage, south of Hispaniola and
in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere in the basin. Seas are in the 8-13 ft range in the
central Caribbean, the highest offshore of northern Colombia, and
mainly in the 4-7 ft range elsewhere. Mostly fair weather
conditions prevail across the region, with isolated to widely
scattered showers embedded in the trade wind flow.

High pressure north of the basin across the west-central Atlantic
will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over central
Caribbean through Wed night, with winds pulsing to gale-force
near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will
prevail south of 18N through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will
continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon, and in the
Windward Passage through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough in the central Atlantic extends from 31N55W to
19N60W, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible near the
trough axis. A 1008 mb area of low pressure is located just south
of Madeira with scattered moderate convection within 210 nm in
the north quadrant of the low, including over Madeira. This low
is stationary and is producing gale force winds north-northeast of
the discussion area. A surface trough extends from the low to
across the Canary islands to near 25N20W. A 1032 mb high pressure
center is near 33N39W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is between the area of low pressure and
the surface trough from 31N55W to 19N60W, light to gentle north of
30N, fresh to strong south of 30N and east of 55W, and moderate
to fresh elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range south of 27N and
east of 65W, and 4-7 ft north of 27N and east of 65W.

To the west, a surface ridge extends along 29N to across northern
Florida. Moderate to fresh trades are noted south of 25N, with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 25N. Seas are in the
4-6 ft range south of 25N, and in the 3-4 ft range north of 25N.
Isolated showers are possible across the Bahamas in the trade wind
flow.

A ridge along 29N will prevail through the remainder of the
weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast
Sun night, reach from 31N72W to central Florida Mon afternoon,
stall and weaken on Tue, then lift northward Tue night and Wed.
Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of the ridge, with the
highest winds expected near the Windward Passage into early next
week.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net