[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea gale warning: The Bermuda High will build across
the western Atlantic through the week and prevail through the
weekend. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
climatological low pressure over Colombia. Fresh to strong winds
will prevail over the south Central Caribbean, with winds pulsing
to gale force each night from Thu night through at least Sun
night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft during the period of gale force
winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 03S40W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted east of 10W as well
as south of 02N west of 45W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 04N between 28W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1003 mb low is centered in the SW Gulf near 23N96W with weak
surface troughs in the NW Gulf from 28N94W to 27N97W and in the NE
Gulf from 30N85W to 27N91W this morning. North of these troughs up
to the Mississippi-Louisiana border, strong E winds were observed
by scatterometer. Elsewhere SE winds of moderate to fresh prevail.
Seas over the central and N Gulf are 5-7 ft, with 3-5 ft occurring
elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 27N
east of 90W in association with the NE Gulf trough, while
scattered showers are noted north of 27N west of 90W.

The surface troughs over the northern Gulf will lift northward
today. A high pressure ridge building over the E Gulf and
persistent low pressure near the coast of Mexico will support
fresh to strong SE winds over the western and central Gulf through
the end of the week. A cold front will move into the W Gulf on
Thu where it will stall and weaken. The remnant boundary will then
shift westward into Mexico and southern Texas Fri into Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the special features section above for more on pulsing
gale force winds off the coast of Colombia starting Thu night.

Low pressure over the SW Gulf of Mexico is contributing toward
strong SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras this morning, as
observed by scatterometer. Elsewhere E trades are generally
gentle to moderate, except for fresh just north of Colombia and
Venezuela. Seas are 3-5 ft, except 5-7 ft over the Gulf of
Honduras and north of Colombia. No significant deep convection is
occurring this morning, though there are some scattered showers
just north of Colombia and Venezuela.

The Bermuda High will build over the western Atlantic through the
end of the week and the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will
persist over the south-central Caribbean, with gale-force winds
pulsing near the coast of Colombia each night from Thu night
through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
Gulf of Honduras through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Generally moderate to fresh E trades prevail across the tropical N
Atlantic, south of ridging from a 1035 mb Bermuda-Azores High
centered near 37N44W. A surface trough, the remnants of an old
cold front, extends from 30N28W to 26N44W. NE to E winds are
enhanced to strong as well as producing scattered showers within
60 nmi of the surface trough. Seas are currently 4-6 ft generally
and 6-8 ft along the surface trough. An upper-level trough is
inducing scattered moderate convection north of 25N between 50W
and 60W. East of 65W, as the Bermuda High strengthens the NE to E
trades will increase to strong from Thu through Sat.

For the forecast west of 65W, the Bermuda High will build
westward across the northern waters through the end of the week
and persist through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will
freshen over the southern waters this weekend as the ridge builds
and prevails.


$$
Landsea
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