[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea gale warning: High pressure will build across the
western Atlantic through the week and prevail through the weekend.
This will tighten the pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and climatological low pressure over Colombia. Fresh to
strong winds will prevail over the south Central Caribbean, with
winds pulsing to gale force each night from Thu night through the
weekend. Seas will build to 10-12 ft during the period of gale
force winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
10N15W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 01S33W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to
06N between 20W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the northern Gulf. Active
convection prevails south of eastern Louisiana and Mississippi.
Latest surface observations indicate fresh to strong winds north
of the surface trough. High pressure is building across the SW N
Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is
supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Gulf. Light to
gentle winds prevail over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate
winds prevail over the eastern Gulf. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range
over the central Gulf, 3-5 ft over the NE Gulf, and 2-3 ft
elsewhere.

A surface trough over the northern Gulf will lift northward
today. A high pressure ridge building over the E Gulf and
persistent low pressure near the coast of Mexico will support
fresh to strong SE winds over the western and central Gulf through
the end of the week. A cold front will move into the W Gulf Thu
where it will stall and weaken. The remnant boundary will shift
westward into Mexico and southern Texas Fri into Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the special features section above for more on pulsing
gale force winds off the coast of Colombia starting Thu night.

High pressure has started to build into the SW N Atlantic waters.
Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean as
well as the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range over the south central
Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the north central and eastern Caribbean,
and 2-4 ft over the NW Caribbean.

High pressure will continue to build over the western Atlantic
through the end of the week into the weekend. Fresh to strong
winds will persist over the south- central Caribbean, with gale-
force winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia each night from
Thu night through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will prevail
in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. The building high pressure
will also strengthen winds over the Windward passage as well as
south of Hispaniola starting late Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge of high pressure has started to build westward across the
western Atlantic waters along 30N from 1034 mb high pressure
centered near 36N43W. An area of fresh to strong winds prevails
over the discussion waters south of this high pressure center,
north of 26N between 32W and 50W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere across the waters east of 60W, with light to gentle
winds over the waters west of 60W. Seas in the 5-8 ft range
prevail over the open waters north of 20N, and in the 5-7 ft
range south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 65W, a high pressure ridge will continue
to build westward across the northern waters through the end of
the week and persist into this weekend. Light to gentle winds will
freshen over the southern waters later this week through the
weekend as the ridge builds and prevails.

$$
AL
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