[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Mar 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high
pressure ridge across the eastern United States and 1014 mb low
pressure off the E coast of N Florida is inducing strong to near
gale force NE winds with frequent gusts to gale force to the
north of 30N. Seas to 10 ft are occurring in this area. The
frequent gusts to gale force are expected to weaken this morning.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 11N15W
to 05N18W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to 01S45W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05S-08N
between 00W-19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is building across the northern Gulf waters. Water
vapor imagery continues to show dry air across most of the basin,
which is inhibiting showers. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
across much of the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over
the northeast Gulf, with seas in the 2-3 ft range elsewhere.

High pressure building over the northeast Gulf will support
increased E to SE winds and building seas over the western Gulf
today, then over the central Gulf Tue and Wed as a cold front
moves through Texas. The front will move into the northwest Gulf
Thu and stall from the north central Gulf coast to the southwest
Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean,
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft
range over the south central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the
north central and east Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western
Caribbean.

High pressure will build over the western Atlantic through mid
week, allowing fresh to strong winds to persist off Colombia, and
increasing winds and building seas over northwest Caribbean from
mid to late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A complex surface pattern is over the SW N Atlantic waters. Low
pressure is centered off the coast of northern Florida. An
occluded front extends from this low to a second low near 31N76W,
with a cold front extending from this low to central Cuba.
Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms are noted N of 25N
between 68W- 76W. As discussed in the Special Features section
above, the strong to gale force winds are north of 30.5N. Light
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere west of 73W, with moderate to
locally fresh winds elsewhere east of 73W. Outside of the area of
gale force winds gusts, seas are in the 6-8 ft over the open
waters of the western Atlantic. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will dissipate today
as the low shifts N of the area. A ridge will build westward into
the region along roughly 27N through mid week, then will lift
north of the area Thu and Fri.

$$
AL
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