[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Mar 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1026
mb high pressure centered near Atlanta Georgia and 1015 mb low
pressure off the E coast of N Florida is inducing strong to near
gale force NE winds with frequent gusts to gale force, to the
north of 30.5N, and east of Georgia and Jacksonville FL.
Sustained winds of gale force are north of 31N, according to a
recent ASCAT pass. These winds are occurring north of 31N west
of 75W. After 12Z this morning, the frequent gusts to gale force
will end to the south of 31N. Seas to 9 ft are occurring in this
area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the
National Hurricane Center at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 11N15W
to 04N19W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to 01.5S41W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05S-07N
between 00W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N-
03N between 25W-30W. Similar convection is along the coast of
Brazil from the Equator to 03S.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front extends from northern Cuba near 23N83W
NW to 27N90W. Water vapor imagery continues to show dry air
across most of the basin, which is inhibiting showers in the
vicinity of the front. A surface trough extends from a 1015 mb
low pressure near Daytona Beach Florida to 28N84.5W. Overcast
low stratus clouds are over the E Gulf, north of 26N and east of
86W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong NE winds off the Florida
Panhandle between the Big Bend and Apalachicola, with fresh
winds elsewhere over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Moderate E to SE
winds cover the NW Gulf with gentle winds over the SW Gulf.

The weakening cold front from western Cuba to the central Gulf
will dissipate early this morning as it moves southward. High
pressure building behind the front over the northeast Gulf will
support increased E to SE winds and building seas over the
western Gulf today, then over the central Gulf Tue and Wed as a
cold front moves through Texas. The front will move into the
northwest Gulf Thu and stall from the north central Gulf coast
to the southwest Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 22/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from central Cuba near
22N78.5W to 21N81W to W Cuba near 22.5N84W. Ahead of the front,
a surface trough extending from E Cuba to just west of Jamaica
is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms over SE Cuba.
During the early evening hours on Sunday, hail was observed in
Camaguey Cuba during a thunderstorm. Elsewhere, satellite
imagery suggests that some showers may be occurring near and
over the Dominican Republic, while relatively dry air covers the
SE Caribbean. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh N winds to the
north of the cold front along the S coast of Cuba. Weak low
pressure north of the basin east of Florida is allowing for a
relaxed pressure gradient, producing moderate wind speeds over
much of the basin, although fresh to strong winds prevail in the
south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. High
pressure will build in over the western Atlantic by Wed and Thu,
allowing fresh to strong winds to persist off Colombia, with
increasing winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean
and Gulf of Honduras from mid to late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 mb low pressure is centered just off of Daytona Beach
Florida. An occluded front extends from the low to 31N79W to
another 1015 mb low near 31N77W. A cold front extends from the
low near 31N77W to Eleuthera Island Bahamas to central Cuba near
22N78.5W. A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from 30N75W
to 28N70W. Scattered areas of tstms are noted N of 25N between
63W-76W. Isolated tstorms are north of the low off northern
Florida. As discussed in the Special Features section above, the
strong to gale force winds are all north of 30.5N. Some fresh
winds prevail east of the cold front N of the Bahamas, but
mainly moderate wind speeds cover the western and central
Atlantic Ocean from 16N-30N. The same can be said about the
eastern Atlantic, with no strong winds or major precipitation
areas noted. Seas average 5-6 ft to the east of 45W, while seas
of 6-8 ft prevail over the western Atlantic.

For the forecast, the cold front over the western Atlantic will
move a little farther east early this morning as the low
pressure east of northern Florida lifts north. Then, the front
will dissipate by this afternoon. A ridge will build westward
into the region along roughly 27N through mid week, then lift
north of the area Thu and Fri. Farther east, low pressure may
form near the Canary Islands late in the week, increasing winds
in the region to strong to near gale force.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net