[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 01200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean gale warning...The pressure gradient between
high pressure across the NE United States and low pressure
centered off the coast of NE Florida is supporting strong to
near gale winds off the east coast of Florida, north of 29N.
There will be frequent gusts to gale force over this area
through this afternoon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast from the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of sections of
Guinea near 10N14W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to
01S30W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 03S to 04N, east of 08W. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted from 00N to 07N between 10W
and 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits across the eastern
Gulf. No significant convection is associated with this
boundary. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the NE Gulf, with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range
over the NE Gulf and calm elsewhere.

The cold front from the Straits of Florida to the
central Gulf will weaken as it moves southward today. High
pressure will build behind the front over the northeast Gulf
through early next week, supporting increased E to SE winds and
building seas over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold
front will approach the Texas coast by mid week, then move into
the northwest Gulf by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Yucatan peninsula to eastern
Honduras. Fresh NE winds are north of the trough, becoming
gentle to moderate in the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong
trades prevail over the south central Caribbean, with moderate
to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the
south central Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere.

High pressure will build over the western Atlantic through mid
week, allowing fresh to strong winds to persist off Colombia,
and increasing winds and building seas over the northwest
Caribbean from mid to late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above for more on the gale warning off the coast of NE
Florida.

A complex surface pattern is over the SW North Atlantic waters.
A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to a 1014 mb low
pressure over the N Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are along this boundary. A second area of low pressure is
located near Jacksonville, FL with a cold front extending
southward to the Florida Straits. Strong to near gale winds are
noted north of 30N and west of 75W. Otherwise, winds are
moderate to fresh in this region. Seas north of 27N range from 6-
12 ft west of 50W, with the largest seas near the SE U.S. coast.

A weak ridge extends from high pressure near 35N37W into the
central Atlantic waters. Light to gentle winds are within this
ridge, as well as over the tropical Atlantic waters north of 15N
and east of 50W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
tropical
waters east of the Leeward Islands. Seas range from 6-7 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front and low will dissipate
today while the cold front will move farther east and dissipate
through Mon as associated low pressure lifts north of the area
through Tue. A ridge will build westward into the region along
roughly 27N through mid week, then will lift north of the area
through Thu.


$$
Mora
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