[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean gale warning...The pressure gradient between
high pressure across the NE United States and low pres centered
off the coast of NE Florida is supporting strong to near gale
winds off the east coast of Florida, north of 29N. There will be
frequent gusts to gale force over this area through this
afternoon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 01S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 05N between 08W
and 17W and from 03N to 10N between 35W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 2-4
ft elsewhere.

The cold front will weaken as it moves across the southeastern
Gulf today. High pressure will build behind the front over the
northeast Gulf through early next week, supporting increased E to
SE winds and building seas over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a
weak cold front will stall along the Texas coast by mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front is over the NW Caribbean. Fresh to
strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are
in the 7-9 ft range over the south central Caribbean. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range elsewhere except over the Windward passage and in
the lee of Cuba where seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

The stationary front will dissipate this morning. Fresh to strong
winds will prevail over the south central Caribbean into early
next week. High pressure building over the western Atlantic will
support fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest Caribbean by
mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above for more on the gale warning off the coast of NE
Florida.

A complex surface pattern is over the SW north Atlantic waters. A
stationary front extends from near Bermuda to low pres over the NW
Bahamas. A second area of low pres is centered off NE Florida
with a cold front extending southward to the Florida Straits.
Strong to near gale winds are noted north of 30N and west of 75W.
A weak ridge extends from high pressure near 35N41W to near
25N72W. Light to gentle winds are within this ridge, as well as
west of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere
west of 40W. Light to gentle winds are noted east of 40W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will dissipate
today while the cold front will move farther east and dissipate
through Mon as associated low pressure lifts north of the area
through Tue. A ridge will build westward into the region along
roughly 27N through mid week.

$$
AL
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