[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will
continue moving eastward in the central N Atlantic today.
Scatterometer passes within the last couple hours indicated peak
winds of 35-40 kt between 45W and 60W. Additionally, altimeter
passes measured seas up to 27 ft near 32N50W at 1330 UTC. Gale-
force winds are expected to diminish this afternoon. Seas will
continue peaking between 20-25 ft in mixed NE swell and W wind
waves from now through Tue night. A very large area of 12 ft or
greater seas will continue through Thu morning.

Caribbean Gale Warning...The pressure gradient from high
pressure  north of the area combined with the low over Colombia
will give way to gale-force winds 90 nm north of Colombia
beginning this evening and through tonight. Seas are expected to
build 8 to 12 ft. Expect fresh to near gale NE to E winds to
prevail for the S central Caribbean Wed night through Sat night.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on these
warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near
11N15W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 01N37W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N between
17W-26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
also noted south of Liberia to the equator and east of 12W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate S winds in the northern
Gulf, with SE moderate to fresh return flow elsewhere. Seas
are 3-5 ft across the basin. No significant precipitation is
occurring at this time.

Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will develop over the
western and central Gulf by tonight into Wed. A cold front is
forecast to push off the Texas coast on Wed and move across the
Gulf waters through Thu. Strong winds could occur off the
Veracruz coast behind the front. The cold front will exit
the southeast Gulf by Fri. Later in the weekend, fresh to
strong winds and building seas could occur in the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for more information on
the Gale Warning over the south-central Caribbean.

The pressure gradient from high pressure north of the area
combined with the low over Colombia and local effects are
producing fresh to strong E winds in the central Caribbean
and fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage.
Scatterometer data from this morning noted NE near-gale force
winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere,
trade winds are moderate to fresh. Scattered showers are
occurring in the eastern Caribbean Sea near the Leeward Antilles.

Gale-force winds will occur within about 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia tonight. From Wed night through Sat night, expect
nightly pulses of fresh to strong winds in this region.
Expect pulses of fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage
and south of Hispaniola tonight. Fresh to strong trades will
dominate most of the waters S of 18N between 64W and 80W today
and will persist through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are
forecast in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale
Warning along our High Seas northern border east of 65W.

A cold front enters the discussion area in the central Atlantic,
extending from 32N45W to 26N75W, near the eastern Bahamas, where
the boundary lifts northward as a warm front. N-NW winds behind
the front reach up to a strong breeze, becoming moderate return
flow west of 65W from higher pressure building in behind the
front. No significant showers or thunderstorms are associated
with the frontal boundary. Farther east a surface trough extends
from 32N41W to 18N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 180 nm east of the trough, N of 26N Strong southerly
winds are ahead of the trough. Seas in the western Atlantic
range from 8-16ft, with values above 20 ft east of 60W
associated with the front. Ridging from high pressure north
of the area dominates the eastern Atlantic with seas 4-7 ft.

Winds will diminish across the NE portion of the forecast waters
through early morning. The cold front front will reach the
Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico tonight into Wed. The next cold
front is expected to push off the Florida coast on Thu night.
Fresh to strong southerly flow is expected ahead of this front
through Fri. By the weekend, strong winds and building seas are
expected to impact the Florida coast. Northerly swell is will
approach the Atlantic Passages E of the Mona Passage through the
Leeward Islands tonight and continue through Thu.

$$
Mora
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