[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will
continue moving eastward in the central N Atlantic today.
Scatterometer passes within the last couple hours indicated peak
winds of 35-40 kt between 52W and 62W. Additionally, altimeter
passes measured peak seas of 20 ft near 30N62W at 2220 UTC. Gale-
force winds are expected to diminish late this morning to a
moderate breeze. Seas will continue peaking between 20-25 ft in
mixed NE swell and W wind waves from now through Tue night. A very
large area of 12 ft or greater seas will continue through Thu
morning.

Caribbean Gale Warning...Pressure gradient from high pressure
north of the area combined with the low over Colombia will give
way to gale-force winds north of Colombia shortly and persisting
through tonight. Seas are expected to build 8 to 12 ft. Expect
fresh to near gale NE to E winds to prevail for the S central
Caribbean Wed night through Sat night.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on these warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 02N36W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring
south of 08N and east of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 06N between 23W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. E to S
winds of only gentle to moderate conditions dominate the Gulf,
except for some fresh E winds just north of the Yucatan. Seas are
5 ft or less across the entire Gulf except up to 6 ft north of
the Yucatan. No significant showers or thunderstorms are occurring
over the Gulf this evening.

Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will develop over the
western and central Gulf by tonight into Wed. A cold front is
forecast to push off the Texas coast on Wed and move across the
Gulf waters through Thu. Strong winds could occur off the Veracruz
coast behind the front. The cold will exit the southeast Gulf by
Fri. Later in the weekend, fresh to strong winds and building seas
could occur in the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for more information on
the Gale Warning over the south-central Caribbean.

Pressure gradient from high pressure north of the area combined
with the low over Colombia and local effects are producing three
areas of enhanced winds. Scatterometer observations in the last
couple hours shows near gale easterlies just north of Colombia,
strong E winds in the Gulf of Honduras, and strong NE winds in
the Windward Passage. Peak seas are likely near 8 to 10 ft just
north of Colombia. Scattered showers are occurring in the vicinity
of a surface trough that extends from the Atlantic over the
Leeward Islands.

Gale-force winds will occur within about 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia tonight. From Wed night through Sat night, expect nightly
pulses of fresh to strong winds in this region. Expect pulses of
fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola tonight. Fresh to strong trades will dominate most of
the waters S of 18N between 64W and 80W today and will persist
through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast in the
Gulf of Honduras tonight through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale
Warning along our High Seas northern border east of 65W.

A cold front enters the discussion area in the central Atlantic,
extending from 30N50W to 27N75W, where it transitions to a
stationary front extending to the Georgia border near 31N81W. N
winds behind the cold front reach up to a strong breeze, while E
winds behind the stationary front a fresh breeze. No significant
showers or thunderstorms are associated with the frontal boundary.
Farther east a surface trough extends from 31N44W to 21N51W to
the Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection are noted east
of the trough, N of 26N between 39W to 44W. Southerly winds ahead
of the trough reach up to near gale conditions.

Winds will diminish across the NE portion of the forecast waters
through early morning. The cold front front will reach the
Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico tonight into Wed. The next cold
front is expected to push off the Florida coast on Thu night.
Fresh to strong southerly flow is expected ahead of this front
through Fri. By the weekend, strong winds and building seas are
expected to impact the Florida coast. Northerly swell is will
approach the Atlantic Passages E of the Mona Passage through the
Leeward Islands tonight and continue through Thu.

$$
AReinhart
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