[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Mar 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move
eastward in the central N Atlantic Mon and Tue. Gale-force W
winds in the S semicircle are anticipated to spread south of 31N
border to 29N between 48W and 60W Mon afternoon through Tue
morning to the west of an associated cold front. By late Tue, as
the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds will diminish
to a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to peak between 20-25
ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon night through Tue
night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Caribbean Gale Warning...Pressure gradient from high pressure
north of the area combined with the low over Colombia will give
way to gale-force winds north of Colombia tonight and Tues night.
Seas are expected to build 8 to 12 ft. Expect fresh to strong NE
to E winds Wed night through Fri night. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the
website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N17W to 06N22W to 02N28W. The ITCZ continues from 02N28W to
00N41W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
occurring south of 07N east of 24W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted south of 03N between 26W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front is lingering off the Texas and Mexico
coast from 29N95W to 22N97W. Scattered showers are present near
the front. Weak ridging prevails across the N Gulf. N to NE winds
behind the front are moderate to fresh, E winds just north of
Yucatan are fresh to strong, while the remainder of the Gulf has
gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Seas range 3-6 ft across the
Gulf with the highest seas north of the Yucatan.

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters with southerly return flow
across the basin. A frontal boundary is expected to linger along
the Texas coast today before weakening as it lifts farther inland
by this evening. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will
develop over the western and central Gulf by Tue night into Wed. A
cold front is forecast to push off the Texas coast on Wed and
move across the Gulf waters through Thu. The front will exit the
southeast Gulf by Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for more information on the gale
warning of Colombia.

High pressure of 1021 mb is centered just northeast of the Bahamas
near 27N75W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower
pressures over Colombia and Venezuela is supporting fresh to
strong NE trades just north of Colombia, as well as fresh to
strong NE winds in both the Windward and Mona Passages. Elsewhere
with moderate to fresh NE to E trades prevail. Seas are in the 6-8
ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Pulses of gale-force winds will occur north of Colombia tonight
and Tue night. From Wed night until the end of the week, expect
fresh to strong winds in this region. Meanwhile, pulses of fresh
to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola through Tue night. By Tue, fresh to strong trades will
dominate most of the waters S of 18N between 64W and 80W and will
continue through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast
in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features above for a Gale event along our High Seas
northern border.

High pressure of 1021 mb is centered just northeast of the Bahamas
near 27N75W. A surface trough extends from 28N52W to 21N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the trough from 25N
to 30N between 45W to 51W. Ridging dominates the eastern Atlantic
anchored by a 1022 mb high near 32N28W. Moderate to fresh N to NE
winds are noted in the Windward Passage, otherwise gentle to
moderate winds are noted across the rest of the basin. Seas are
4-6 ft in the SW N Atlantic waters with 8-10 ft seas in the
central Atlantic ahead of an incoming front.

A cold front will move south of 30N on Mon. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas in NW swell will follow this
front, affecting mainly the NE forecast waters through tonight.
The next cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on
Thu night. Fresh to strong southerly flow is expected ahead of
this front through Fri. Farther south, swell is expected to impact
the Atlantic Passages E of the Mona Passage through the Leeward
Islands Tue night into Wed.

$$
AReinhart
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