[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150437
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Mar 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move
eastward in the central N Atlantic Mon and Tue. Gale-force W
winds in the S semicircle are anticipated to spread south of 31N
border to 29N between 48W and 60W Mon afternoon through Tue
morning to the west of an associated cold front. By late Tue, as
the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds will diminish
to a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to peak between 20-27
ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon night through Tue
night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues from 03N26W to 01N41W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring
south of 05N east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 03N between 20W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico from 29N95W
off of the upper Texas coast to 23N98W in NE Mexico. Scattered
showers are present within 30 nmi of the front north of 26N. Weak
ridging prevails across the N Gulf.  N to NE winds behind the
front are moderate to fresh, E winds just north of Yucatan are
fresh to strong, while the remainder of the Gulf has gentle to
moderate E to SE winds. Seas peak at 4-5 ft in the W Gulf and just
north of Yucatan.

The frontal boundary is expected to linger along the Texas coast
through Mon before weakening as it lifts farther inland by Mon
evening. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will develop over
the western and central Gulf by Tue night into Wed. A new cold
front is forecast to push off the Texas coast on Wed and move
across the Gulf waters through Thu. The front will exit the
southeast Gulf by Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure of 1021 mb is centered just northeast of the Bahamas
near 28N74W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower
pressures over Colombia and Venezuela is supporting fresh to
strong NE trades just north of Colombia, as well as fresh to
strong NE winds in both the Windward and Mona Passages. Elsewhere
with moderate to fresh NE to E trades prevail. Seas are in the
6-7 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere.

Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola through Tue night. Fresh to strong
NE winds are also expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia at
night through Fri night. By Tue, fresh to strong trades will
dominate most of the waters S of 18N between 64W and 80W. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Tue
night through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features above for a Gale event along our High Seas
northern border.

High pressure of 1021 mb is centered just northeast of the Bahamas
near 28N74W. A surface trough extends from 28N52W to 21N61W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring west of the surface
trough. Elsewhere across the tropical N Atlantic winds are gentle
to moderate. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N
between 45W to 50W, in association with the surface trough. Seas
are peaking at 6-8 ft along the 31N border between 45W and 55W,
mainly due to NW swell. Elsewhere seas are generally 4-6 ft.

For the region west of 65W, a cold front will move south of 30N
on Mon. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas in NW swell
will follow this front, affecting mainly the NE forecast waters
Mon and Mon night. The next cold front is expected to push off the
Florida coast on Thu night. Fresh to strong southerly flow is
expected ahead of this front through Fri.

$$
Landsea
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