[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1010 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Merging cold fronts extend from 30N66W to
1013 mb low pressure near 25N77.5W to the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. The new front will move SE through Mon, while the low
moving through the Bahamas slides NE along the front and deepens
across the western Atlantic today through tonight. High pressure
north of the region will act to increase northerly winds behind
the front to gale force NW of the low pres late this afternoon
through tonight from 27N-31N between 62W-74W, where seas will
build to 10-12 ft. The low and gale force winds will lift N of the
area by Mon morning.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building behind a cold
front that will move SE across the western Atlantic the next few
days will increase the pressure gradient across the south central
Caribbean tonight through midweek. Winds within 90 nm of the coast
of Colombia are expected to increase to gale force Mon night, and
then again Tue night. Seas will reach 12 ft or higher during the
period of peak winds.

For more information, please refer the Atlantic High Seas
forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 11N15W
to 04.5N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N30W to 01S47W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough
from 01N-07N between 11W-21W. Similar convection is noted near
the ITCZ from 03S-02N between 30W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough continues to support a cold front
that extends from the Straits of Florida to the northern Yucatan
Peninsula where the front transitions to stationary. Strong high
pressure building northwest of the front over the lower Mississippi
Valley to the Texas coast is currently supporting fresh to strong
NE winds over the eastern half of the Gulf and fresh N to NE winds
west of 90W. Recent radar imagery noted scattered showers ahead
of the front in the Straits of Florida. Seas behind the front to
90W range between 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 6 ft,
reaching 6 ft off the coast of Tampico, Mexico.

The front will move into the NW Caribbean today. High pressure
building behind the front will support strong east winds across
the eastern Gulf this afternoon through Wed. SE return flow will
develop across the northern Gulf late Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are over the Yucatan Channel and portions of
the far NW Caribbean associated with a cold front moving across
the SE Gulf of Mexico and entering the Caribbean Basin. A surface
trough is noted ahead of the front stretching from western Cuba
to Belize. A 1015 mb surface high is observed in the western
Caribbean near 18N84W, supporting gentle anticyclonic winds and
calm seas. Elsewhere across the basin, fresh trades prevail, with
seas 6 to 7 ft south of 14N across the waters from the A-B-C
Islands to NW Colombia.

Fresh to strong tradewinds will prevail in the southern Caribbean
today before strengthening basin wide. Winds will pulse to gale
force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night. A cold
front entering the northwest Caribbean this morning will move SE
through Mon and then stall from Hispaniola to Honduras by Tue.
Strong NE winds and building seas will prevail behind the front
over the western Caribbean.

Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stalled cold front extends from 1014 mb low pressure near
29N68W to 1013 mb low pres near 25N77.5W to the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
observed over the northern Bahamas, ahead of the front. Another
area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is observed near a
surface trough SE of the front extending from 30N59W to 26N69W.
Fresh to strong NE winds are north of 27N, behind the front that
is moving across the W Atlantic, where seas are from 7-11 ft. The
remainder basin is under the influence of the Azores high, which
is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds east of
60W. Seas are 7 to 12 ft with a component of longer period NW
swell.

Strong N to NE winds behind the front and N of 27N will build in
behind the front through Mon as the front moves SE across the
regional waters, and the lows slide NE along the front. Winds will
reach gale force immediately behind the front late this afternoon
through tonight to the north of 27N and east of 76W. The front is
expected to stall from near 22N65W to central Hispaniola early
Tue. Strong high pressure will build north of the front and
support strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed.

$$
Stripling
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