[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure currently over the SE Gulf of
Mexico will deepen and move rapidly to the east across Florida
into the western Atlantic by tonight. Strong northerly winds
following the front will increase to gale force by Sun night
over Atlantic waters southwest of Bermuda, from 27N-31N between
65W-70W, with 8 to 12 ft seas. For more information, please
refer the Atlantic High Seas forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 11N15W
to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 00N30W 01N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough
from 01N-07N between 11W-21W. Similar convection is noted near
the ITCZ from 03S-01N between 26W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough continues to support a cold front
that extends from the southern tip of Florida to a 1012 mb low
near 25N84W to the Yucatan Peninsula where the front transitions
to stationary. Strong high pressure building northwest of the
front over the lower Mississippi Valley to the Texas coast is
currently supporting NE fresh to strong winds over the eastern
half of the Gulf and fresh N winds west of 90W. Recent radar
imagery noted scattered showers ahead of the front in the
Straits of Florida. Seas behind the front range between 4 to 8
ft. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 6 ft, reaching 7 ft off the coast
of Tampico, Mexico.

For the forecast, the low will shift E-SE across the Straits of
Florida tonight, dragging the front into the NW Caribbean. High
pressure building behind the front will support strong east
winds across the eastern Gulf tonight through early Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the
Yucatan Channel and portions of the far NW Caribbean associated
with a cold front moving across the SE Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough is noted ahead of the front stretching from the western
tip of Cuba to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. A surface high is
observed in the western Caribbean near 11N82W, supporting gentle
anticyclonic winds and calm seas. Elsewhere across the basin,
fresh trades prevail, with seas to 7 ft farther south close the
South American coast.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will
prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun. Winds will pulse
to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night.
A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late tonight
through Sun. The front will stall from Hispaniola to Honduras by
Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will prevail behind the
front over the western Caribbean.

Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low pressure center of 1012 mb is currently off the SE coast
of Florida. A stationary front continues NE from this low to
another low pressure center, located near 27N70W, to 32N63W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed over
the northern Bahamas, ahead of the front. Another area of
scattered showers and thunderstorms is observed near a surface
trough extending from 30N59W to 26N69W. Fresh to strong NE
winds are north of 27N, behind the front that is moving off the
coast of Florida with seas from 6-9 ft. The remainder basin is
under the influence of the Azores high, which is supporting a
large area of fresh to strong trade winds east of 52W. Seas are
7 to 11 ft with a component of longer period NW swell.

For the forecast for the area west of 65W, the low pressure
system will move from SE Florida toBermuda tonight through
early Mon, accompanied by strong to near- gale force winds.
Winds will reach gale force west of the low Sun night. The low
will drag a cold front across the region through early next
week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon, supporting
strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed.

$$
Mora
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