[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010232
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Five is centered near 9.6N 43.7W at 30/2100
UTC or 1040 nm E of the Windward Islands moving WNW at 18 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A tropical wave is
associated with this area, near 43W/44W south of 18N in the
Atlantic Ocean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 07N to 12N between 40W and 47W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted elsewhere from 04N to 11N between 43W and 50W.
The system is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching
the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions are possible
beginning Fri in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Fri. Isolated
flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 30W south of 12N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 01N to 09N between 27W and 32W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W south of 19N, moving west
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 01N to 19N between 58W and 65W. The wave will
continue to produce locally heavy rains over portions of the
Lesser Antilles overnight.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W south of 20N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted over the far SW Caribbean where the wave intersects the
monsoon trough.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W south of 22N. This wave is
moving very slowly and will merge with the wave to its east
overnight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to 10N23W. The ITCZ continues from 10N23W to 07N28W. It resumes
from 04N32W to 06N40W. It resumes from 07N48W to 05N53W. Aside
from convection described in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is noted from02N to 07N between 32W and 37W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf, with high pressure
prevailing across the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail
in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere except just north of the Yucatan peninsula where fresh
to locally string winds are noted.


1011 mb low pressure area is in the Bay of Campeche near
19N94W with a surface trough extending westward across eastern
Mexico. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted within 210 nm NE-E of the coast of Mexico from 18N to 25N.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across portions of
the eastern and central Gulf east of 90W, aided by divergent flow.
Mainly gentle to moderate E-SE flow prevails outside of any deep
convection. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range, locally 6 ft, west
of 90W, and 2 to 4 ft east of 90W.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the
next several days producing mainly moderate E to SE winds. Fresh
east to southeast winds are expected at night near the western
Yucatan Peninsula through Fri due to local effects induced by a
thermal trough. Another trough will persist over the SW Gulf over
the next several days producing showers and thunderstorms. Winds
and seas may be higher near thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five.

Low pressure at 1011 mb is located in the Gulf of Honduras near
16.5N88W. Nearby convection is described in the tropical waves
section above. Fresh to near gale force E trades are over the
south-central Caribbean along with 8 to 11 ft seas. Moderate to
fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the basin along with seas in
the 4 to 7 ft range, except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean
south of 11N.

For the forecast, refer to the progress and details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five, and for details on a vigorous tropical wave
approaching the eastern Caribbean islands.

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
21N to 27N between 66W and 80W including across the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula. Divergent
flow south of an upper-level trough near the region is supporting
this convection. Moderate to fresh E-SE flow prevails across the
waters west of 65W, except gentle to moderate north of 27N between
65W and 70W. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range west of 65W to the
Bahamas, except 3 to 4 ft north of 27N between 65W and 70W.

To the east, 1024 mb high pressure is located near 28N48W with a
ridge axis extending to northwest of the area. A surface trough
is analyzed from 31N31W to 28N38W. Isolated showers are possible
near the trough axis. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are
under the ridge across the waters north of 26N between 25W and
65W, along with 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere south of 26N and north of the convergence zone, along
with 5 to 8 ft seas. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are from 19N to
30N, west of the coast of Africa to 20W due to a locally tight
pressure gradient.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will build westward
and dominate the forecast waters the remainder of the week. Fresh
to strong winds are expected just north of Hispaniola Thu night
through Sun night due to the pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge. Also, refer to the progress and details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.

$$
AL
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