[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is centered near 9.6N 43.7W at
30/2100 UTC or 1040 nm E of the Windward Islands moving WNW at
18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A tropical wave
is associated with this area, near 43W/44W south of 18N in the
Atlantic Ocean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 07N to 12N between 40W and 47W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted elsewhere from 04N to 11N between 43W and 50W.
The system is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching
the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions are possible
beginning Fri in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Fri. Isolated
flash flooding and mudslides are possible.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 28N south of 13N in the Atlantic Ocean,
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate from 01N to 08N
between 23W and 33W.

A tropical wave is near 43W/44W south of 18N in the Atlantic
Ocean, with the tropical wave itself moving W at around 10 kt.
See the Special Features section above for more details on this
tropical wave and associated low pressure.

A tropical wave is near 59W/60W south of 19N to across Guyana,
moving from the tropical N Atlantic toward the eastern Caribbean
Sea at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 18N between 57W and 68W. This
area has become less organized since yesterday, and significant
development is no longer expected while it moves quickly westward
across the Caribbean Sea. The wave should continue to produce
locally heavy rains over portions of the Lesser Antilles through
tonight. Fresh to strong winds are also associated with this wave,
along with 7 to 10 ft seas.

A tropical wave is near 76W south of 20N from eastern Cuba to
eastern Jamaica to western Colombia in the Caribbean Sea, moving W
at around 10 kt. There is deep convection located across Panama
and into the extreme eastern east Pacific Ocean with another
tropical wave located over that basin to the west.

A tropical wave is near 84W/85W south of 22N from the NW
Caribbean Sea into the extreme SE Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan
Channel, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 23N between 83W
and 89W, including across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula
including Mexico, Belize and Guatemala.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to 07N27W to 10N37W to low pressure near 08N42W to 07N44W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N44W to the coast of Brazil and French
Guiana near 04N51W. Convection is described in the special
features and tropical waves sections above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb low pressure area is in the Bay of Campeche near
19N94W with a surface trough extending westward across eastern
Mexico. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted within 210 nm NE-E of the coast of Mexico from 18N to 25N.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across portions of
the eastern and central Gulf east of 90W, aided by divergent flow.
Mainly gentle to moderate E-SE flow prevails outside of any deep
convection. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range, locally 6 ft, west
of 90W, and 2 to 4 ft east of 90W.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the
next several days producing mainly moderate E to SE winds. Fresh
east to southeast winds are expected at night near the western
Yucatan Peninsula through Fri due to local effects induced by a
thermal trough. Another trough will persist over the SW Gulf over
the next several days producing showers and thunderstorms. Winds
and seas may be higher near thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five.

Low pressure at 1011 mb is located in the Gulf of Honduras near
16.5N88W. Nearby convection is described in the tropical waves
section above. Fresh to near gale force E trades are over the
south-central Caribbean along with 8 to 11 ft seas. Moderate to
fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the basin along with seas in
the 4 to 7 ft range, except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean
south of 11N.

For the forecast, refer to the progress and details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five, and for details on a vigorous tropical wave
approaching the eastern Caribbean islands.

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
21N to 27N between 66W and 80W including across the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula. Divergent
flow south of an upper-level trough near the region is supporting
this convection. Moderate to fresh E-SE flow prevails across the
waters west of 65W, except gentle to moderate north of 27N between
65W and 70W. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range west of 65W to the
Bahamas, except 3 to 4 ft north of 27N between 65W and 70W.

To the east, 1024 mb high pressure is located near 28N48W with a
ridge axis extending to northwest of the area. A surface trough
is analyzed from 31N31W to 28N38W. Isolated showers are possible
near the trough axis. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are
under the ridge across the waters north of 26N between 25W and
65W, along with 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere south of 26N and north of the convergence zone, along
with 5 to 8 ft seas. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are from 19N to
30N, west of the coast of Africa to 20W due to a locally tight
pressure gradient.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will build westward
and dominate the forecast waters the remainder of the week. Fresh
to strong winds are expected just north of Hispaniola Thu night
through Sun night due to the pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge. Also, refer to the progress and details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.

$$
Lewitsky
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