[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is analyzed along 30W and
from 17N southward, moving W from 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted along the wave axis mainly south of 06N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is analyzed along 46W from
11N southward, moving W 10 kt. Scattered showers prevail in the
wave's environment between 40W-50W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is analyzed along 57W from
15N southward, moving W from 5 to 10 kt. A 1013 mb low pressure
center is along the wave's axis near 12N. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave and low
from 08N-14N between 50W-58W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is analyzed along 74W from 19N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Fresh winds are within 135 nm
to the south of Hispaniola, and within 150 nm to the east of the
tropical wave. Fresh winds also are within 60 nm to the north of
Hispaniola between 71W and the northern part of the Windward
Passage. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet within 150 nm
on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 07N27W to 05N35W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N35W to 03N43W. Aside from the convection described in the
tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection
prevails from 00N-10N and east of 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along 31N/32N between 80W in the Atlantic
Ocean, and northern Louisiana. Scattered moderate convection
prevails across the eastern Gulf waters east of 87W. A surface
ridge passes through central Florida near 28N82W, toward the NW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, toward the coast of Mexico near
21N98W. The sea heights range from 3 to 4 ft from 90W westward,
and from 2 to 3 ft from 90W eastward.

High pressure will prevail across the northern waters. A
diurnally-induced trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula
each evening. This will result in a pulsing of fresh E to SE winds
each night NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the central Caribbean and the one approaching the Leeward
Islands.

Fresh winds are within 135 nm to the south of Hispaniola, and
within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave. Fresh winds also
are within 60 nm to the north of Hispaniola between 71W and the
northern part of the Windward Passage. The sea heights range from
4 to 6 ft within 350 nm to 450 nm on either side of the tropical
wave. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 74W in
Colombia, and beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Scattered showers prevail along the trough.

A ridge of high pressure to the north of the area, combined with
the low pressure that is in Colombia, will continue to support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea,
and in the Gulf of Honduras, through this morning. The ridge will
shift northward, loosening the pressure gradient, with a modest
decrease in the wind speeds in these areas. A tropical wave, that
is moving across the offshore tropical Atlantic Ocean waters, will
interact with an upper level trough, which will enhance
convection with locally higher winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered showers are noted over the west Atlantic west of 75W. To
the east, a surface trough is analyzed from 34N49W to 24N49W. An
upper level cyclonic circulation center is at about 120 nm to the
west of the surface trough. Scattered showers are noted in this
area. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the area,
anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure center that is just to the
north of Bermuda to 30N74W to central Florida near 28N82W.
Fresh-to-strong N and NE winds are within 250 nm of the coast of
Africa from the northern sections of Senegal to 25N off the coast
of the Western Sahara. The sea heights have been ranging from 5
feet to 7 feet in this area.

Scattered showers will prevail across the western Atlantic
mainly west of 75W. This activity will continue through the next
few days, as a frontal boundary currently north of the area
drifts east. A surface trough, the result of an interaction of a
tropical wave and upper level trough, will move north of the
Lesser Antilles Friday night. The trough will continue to move
westward across the southern waters north of Puerto Rico Sat, and
north of Hispaniola Sun.

$$
ERA
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