[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 17N
southward, moving W from 10 knots to 15 knots.  Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
cover the areas that are from 14N to 22N between 25W and 33W.
Any other significant deep convective precipitation is related
more to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 12N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 01N
to 10N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 15N
southward, moving W from 5 knots to 10 knots. A 1012 mb low
pressure center is along the tropical wave near 12N.
Precipitation: scattered strong is within 165 nm of the center
in the E quadrant. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet
from 20N southward between 50W in the Atlantic Ocean and 62W in
the Caribbean Sea. Fresh-to-strong winds are from 60 nm to 180
nm of the center in the NE quadrant. The low pressure center is
about 160 nm to the ESE of Barbados, and about 210 nm to the ENE
of Tobago. Increasing upper level winds are likely to prevent
more development of this system, while it moves
west-northwestward about 10 mph.  It is possible that low
pressure center and tropical wave may produce increased
rainshower activity and some gusty winds, when it moves across
the Lesser Antilles on Friday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 19N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Broad upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Caribbean Sea, to the west of the line that runs
from the Windward Passage to Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong, in individual clusters,
covers the areas that are from Jamaica to Cuba between
Hispaniola and 84W. Fresh winds are within 135 nm to the south of
Hispaniola, and within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave.
Fresh winds also are within 60 nm to the north of Hispaniola
between 71W and the northern part of the Windward Passage. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet within 150 nm on either side
of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 07N20W, 06N25W, 06N31W, and
05N35W. The ITCZ is along 05N35W 03N43W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 90 nm to
the south of the coast of Africa from 07W eastward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 250 nm to
500 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 10W and 30W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 10N
southward from 60W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along 31N/32N between 80W in the Atlantic
Ocean, and northern Louisiana. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong in clusters covers the areas that are
from Cuba northward between 73W in the Atlantic Ocean and 88W in
the Gulf of Mexico.

A diurnal surface trough is inland, from central Guatemala,
through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, beyond
20N100W. Precipitation: numerous strong is inland, and in the
coastal waters, between the NW sections of El Salvador and
Mexico, between 88W and 100W.

A surface ridge passes through central Florida near 28N82W,
toward the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, toward the coast of
Mexico near 21N98W.

The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 4 feet from 90W
westward, and from 2 feet to 3 feet from 90W eastward.

High pressure will prevail across the northern waters. A
diurnally-induced trough will develop in  the Yucatan Peninsula
each evening. This will result in a pulsing of fresh E to SE
winds each night NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Broad upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea, to the west of the line that
runs from the Windward Passage to Nicaragua. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, in individual
clusters, covers the areas that are from Jamaica to Cuba between
Hispaniola and 84W. Fresh winds are within 135 nm to the south of
Hispaniola, and within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave.
Fresh winds also are within 60 nm to the north of Hispaniola
between 71W and the northern part of the Windward Passage. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet within 350 nm to 450 nm on
either side of the tropical wave.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 74W in Colombia, and
beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 14N southward from 70W
westward, in the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong, in individual clusters, is within 300 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough, between the 71W/72W tropical wave
and 85W.

A ridge of high pressure to the north of the area, combined with
the low presssure that is in Colombia, will continue to support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea,
and in the Gulf of Honduras, through tonight. The ridge will
shift northward, loosening the pressure gradient, with a modest
decrease in the wind speeds in these areas. A tropical wave, that
is moving across the offshore tropical Atlantic Ocean waters, will
interact with an upper level trough, which will enhance
convection with locally higher winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough covers the area that is from 22N to 31N between
48W and 51W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
27N53W, about 120 nm to the west of the surface trough.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 25N to 31N between the surface trough and 56W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is just to the north of Bermuda, to 30N74W, to central Florida
near 28N82W.

Fresh-to-strong N and NE winds are within 250 nm of the coast of
Africa from the northern sections of Senegal to 25N off the
coast of the Western Sahara. The sea heights have been ranging
from 5 feet to 7 feet in the same area.

A surface trough extends across the NW waters, with a surface
ridge along 26W. The ridge will start to shift northward
tonight, pushing the trough westward into the SE United States
by Friday night. A surface trough, the result of an interaction
of a tropical wave and upper level trough, will move north of
the Lesser Antilles Friday night. The trough will continue to
move westward across the southern waters to the north of Puerto
Rico on Saturday, and to the north of Hispaniola
on Sunday.

$$
mt/ERA
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