[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 25W from 16N southward,
moving W 10 kt. Scattered showers prevail within 90 nm on either
side of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is along 42W from 12N
southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N to 09N between 40W and 45W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is along 56W from 15N
southward, moving W 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N to 12N between 54W and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of coastal
Africa near 09N15W to 06N27W. The ITCZ is along 06N27W to 06N35W
04N40W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves
section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to
08N between 28W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A squall line extends along 27N between 84W and 96W. A frontal
boundary extends across the gulf states north of the squall line
passes through SW Georgia to southern Mississippi, then continues
over northeast Texas. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate southerly winds across the basin. The sea heights are
ranging from 4 to 5 ft from 22N to 28N between 88W and 93W, from
4 to 5 ft from 21N northward from 93W westward, and 1 to 3 ft in
the SW corner of the Gulf.

The squall line will weaken today. The front will drift eastward
exiting from the basin within the next 48 hours. A surface ridge
from the Atlantic Ocean prevails elsewhere, and will dominate the
Gulf region during the next several days. Pulsing fresh E to SE
winds are expected each night into the early morning hours, to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, through Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an upper level cyclonic
circulation center that is near SE Cuba and the Windward
Passage, toward eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. The monsoon
trough is along 10N76W in Colombia, through 09N82W, beyond
southern Costa Rica and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough.
The sea heights range from 3 to 5 ft from 70W eastward, from 4 to
6 ft between 70W and 80W, and from 4 to 5 ft from 80W westward.
Strong NE winds are within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia between
73W and 75W. Fresh-to-strong NE and E winds are within 300 nm of
the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia between 70W and 77W, and in
the Gulf of Venezuela; and within 60 nm of the northern coast of
Hispaniola between 70W and the northern part of the Windward
Passage. Strong easterly winds are within 180 nm to the north of
Honduras from 84W westward.

The Atlantic high pressure combined with the Colombian low
continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean mainly at night through Wed. Pulsing fresh to strong E
to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through
Wed also. An active tropical wave with axis along 57W is forecast
to approach the Lesser Antilles by Thu, and move across those
islands on Fri enhancing convection, winds, and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough is analyzed over the western Atlantic from
32N75W to 28N80W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
the trough and west of 75W. To the east, a pair of surface
troughs extend along 45W and 54W mainly north of 25N. Scattered
showers prevail in the vicinity of the troughs. A surface ridge
extends across the remainder of the basin from a 1030 mb high
pressure centered near 40N23W. Gentle-to-moderate NE winds cover
the areas that are from 07N to 15N between 30W and 40W, and from
07N to 17N between 41W and 53W. Moderate NE winds cover the areas
that are from 18N northward between 20W and 30W, and elsewhere
from 25N southward between 55W and 67W. The sea heights were
ranging from 4 to 6 ft from 20N northward between 20W and 30W,
and from 4 to 5 ft, elsewhere away from the tropical waves.

Fresh S to SW winds will continue across the waters off NE
Florida through the morning hours, in advance of a frontal
boundary that is in the SE of the United States. A surface ridge
will continue to dominate the area during the next several days.
Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night in
the Hispaniola adjacent waters, including in the approaches to the
Windward Passage, through Friday night.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net